GC083-0014
Intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon lifecycle based on observation and CMIP6
Monday, 14 December 2020
Poster
Jina Park, GIST Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South), Jin-Ho Yoon, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering, Guangju, South Korea, Hyungjun Kim, The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Department of Plant, Soils and Climate, Logan, UT, United States, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Chonnam National University, Department of Oceanography, Gwangju, South Korea, Matthew Laplante, Utah State University, Department of Journalism and Communication, Logan, UT, United States and Kyo-Sun Lim, Kyungpook National University, Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Daegu, South Korea
Abstract:
More than a third of global population is directly impacted by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), which carries moist air from the Indian and Pacific oceans across a large expanse of Asia. But because the timing and intensity of the monsoon naturally varies from year to year, it is challenging to determine how this powerful seasonal cycle is being impacted by global warming. Thus, this study analyzes long-term changes in the EASM lifecycle during 1979-2017 (2010 for models) based on observational datasets and historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
The result shows that climate change is brining shorter and stronger rainy periods, followed by longer dry spells. The monsoon’s shifting cycle creates the conditions for dangerous flood-heat wave succession event. This change may drive life-altering and life-threatening weather events like consecutive extreme events in Japan in 2018 causing more than 1,000 deaths. The trend is quite unmistakable although because this covers millions of square miles of very diverse geography, the warming-driven changes will impact different areas in different ways. The monsoon’s lifecycle has been enhanced, leading to a higher chance of both wet and dry extremes in a single summer season. The implication of these sorts of meteorological combination punches may be profound.
