Potential Impacts of international food trade on global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions under climate change

Abstract:

The imbalance between growing food demand and available cropland resources has stimulated international food trade in past decades. As climate change has intensified and will further exacerbate crop yield loss, trade is also considered as an effective adaptation measure. However, the growing international food trade transfers influences of food demand and climate change to the local cropland production through land use change and management intensity, which in turn can profoundly impact regional greenhouse gas emissions and thus form feedback to the climate system. Here, we combine an agricultural ecosystem model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model-Agriculture version 2.0, DLEM-AG2) and a global economic model (Economic Projection & Policy Analysis model, EPPA) to analyze dynamics of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (including CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) in the future under varied international food trade policies with two different representative concentration pathways. The results show different trade policies, which consider concerns of food security, economic and ecological benefits, can largely affect land use change patterns and the associated GHG emissions. This study can serve as a reference for international policy-making to help cope with the ongoing climate change.