Informing the Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways in a Complex World: Considering multi-sectoral Dynamics and the Value of Deep Uncertainty Methods

Abstract:

There is a growing recognition that adapting to changing climatic, environmental, and socio-economic conditions necessitates the consideration of multi-sector dynamics. Not accounting for these dynamics results in maladaptation. It remains an open question how to best represent multi-sectoral dynamics in models as well as the implications for policy analysis. Using the design of adaptive pathways for the Vietnam Mekong Delta as a case study, we showcase how emerging deep uncertainty methods and techniques can help.

Adapting to environmental change in the Vietnam Mekong delta requires considering the interplay between the hydrological, biophysical and the socio-economic system over time. Over the past 30 years, there has been a massive increase in agricultural production, driven by new high dikes. High dikes prevent monsoon flooding, offering rice farmers a third cropping season. But preventing the monsoon flood has unintended consequences: nutrient rich sediments no longer reach the fields and carriers of disease are not washed out. Farmers are thus forced to increase fertilizer and pesticide use. This exacerbates inequality, for not all farmers have the financial capabilities for this.

To support the design of robust and equitable adaptive pathways, we developed a spatially-explicit model coupling flooding and sedimentation, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and land use change and farmer profitability. We explore multisectoral dynamics over an ensemble of uncertain futures related to environmental, climatic, and socio-economic change. We consider a range of adaptation options and assess their impact on farmer profitability, paying particular attention to spatial and temporal inequality. In light of the case study, we conclude that deep uncertainty methods are particularly suitable for addressing the analytical challenges when offering model-based support for the design of adaptive pathways for multi-sector dynamic systems.