Agave americana: a resilient crop for hot and dry regions

Abstract:

Yields from current commodity crops are declining due to extreme weather events that are linked to climate change. More frequent drought events in some regions and more frequent flooding in others has led to increased crop risk for farmers and higher subsidization costs for governments (Davis et al. 2018). Agave species have historically been harvested for food, beverages, and fiber in regions found at lower latitudes (Davis et al. 2011, 2014, 2019). Over the last decade, some Agave species have been identified for their potential to also serve growing bioenergy demands (e.g. Davis et al. 2011, Holtum et al. 2011, Owens and Griffiths 2015, Jones et al. 2019). Agave americana in particular is both high-yielding and tolerant of cooler temperatures found at higher latitudes, above or below the 30 °N or S parallels respectively (Davis et al. 2016, 2019). A simple model of the physiological response of Agave americana to variations in solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation was recently developed (Niechayev et al. 2018), and was used in this study to resolve potential yields from a theoretical crop of Agave americana in regions across the globe. Using current climate conditions and projections for future climate conditions with 2 °C and 4 °C warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), we estimate the potential expanded range for agricultural production of Agave americana. Novel crops with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism have the potential for supporting sustainable agriculture in a future with rising temperatures and more frequent droughts.