A110
Advances in Earth System Prediction Across Timescales I eLightning

Friday, 11 December 2020: 04:00-05:00
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
04:00
A110-01
A Next Generation (NextGen) Approach to Improve the Seasonal Prediction System in East Africa (737453)
Nachiketa Acharya, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Palisades, NY, United States and Tufa Dinku, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Palisades, United States
04:03
A110-02
A New CAM6+DART 80-Member Ensemble Reanalysis for 2011-2019: Initial Conditions for CAM, CLM and CICE Forecasts and Forcing for POP, CLM and CICE (700620)
Kevin Raeder1, Jeffrey L Anderson2, Timothy J Hoar3, Moha El Gharamti4, Nancy Collins2, Jeffrey L Steward5 and Benjamin K Johnson4, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational & Information Systems Lab, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Natl Ctr Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
04:06
A110-03
Skillful Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasts on Interannual to Decadal Timescales Using A Linear Inverse Model (685904)
Lindsey Taylor, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States and Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
04:09
A110-04
Predicting Seasonal Climate Characteristics Over Senegal using a New Multi-Model Approach (716420)
Asher Siebert, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Sylwia Trzaska, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades, NY, United States and Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
04:12
A110-05
Seasonal Predictability of Baroclinic Waves Establishes Pathway Toward Predicting Extratropical Extremes (709068)
Gan Zhang1,2, Hiroyuki Murakami2,3, William Cooke2, Zhuo Wang4, Liwei Jia2,3, Feiyu Lu1,2, Xiaosong Yang2,3, Thomas L Delworth2, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg2, Matt Harrison2, Mitchell Bushuk2,3, Colleen McHugh2,5, Nathaniel Johnson2, Sarah B. Kapnick2, Kai-Chih Tseng1,2, Fanrong Jenny Zeng2 and Liping Zhang2,3, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States, (5)Science Applications International Corporation, Reston, VA, United States
04:15
A110-06
Streamflow Prediction using Deep Learning from the NOAA-CREST Observation Site in Millbrook, New York (716175)
Ana Abreu, Bronx, New York, United States
04:18
A110-07
Sub-India summer monsoon rainfall variability and its implications for all-India summer monsoon rainfall prediction (744021)
Spencer A Hill, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NJ, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, NY, United States and Mark A Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States
04:21
A110-08
Was the 2015 subpolar North Atlantic cold blob predictable? (712893)
Elizabeth Maroon, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, Gokhan Danabasoglu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Nan A Rosenbloom, NCAR/CGD, Boulder, CO, United States
04:24
A110-09
Decadal Temperature Prediction Skill in the North Atlantic Region in CMIP6 (670147)
Leonard F. Borchert1, Marcos Payo1, Matthew Menary1, Didier Swingedouw2, Giovanni Sgubin2, Leon Hermanson3 and Juliette Mignot1, (1)Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN, Paris, France, (2)EPOC Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, Pessac, France, (3)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom
04:27
A110-10
The Value of Initialization on Decadal Timescales: State-Dependent Predictability in the CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (694235)
Hannah Mary Christensen, University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom and Judith Berner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
04:30
A110-11
The Transition of Global Ensemble Forecast System to Fully Coupled Earth System Model for Subseasonal Predictions (675188)
Bing Fu1, Yuejian Zhu2, Dingchen Hou2, Wei Li1, Walter Kolczynski Jr.1, Hong Guan3, Eric Sinsky1, Bo Yang4, Xianwu Xue4, Yan Luo1 and Jiayi Peng1, (1)IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (3)SRG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (4)SRG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States
04:33
A110-12
On the Development of GFDL’s decadal prediction system: initialization approaches and retrospective prediction assessment (703612)
Xiaosong Yang1, Thomas L Delworth1, Fanrong Jenny Zeng1, Liping Zhang1,2, William Cooke1, Matt Harrison1 and Gilbert P Compo3, (1)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, NJ, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
04:36
A110-13
Improvement in predictive skill across timescales: Justification for a seamless approach (738469)
Daniela Faggiani Dias, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, United States, James W Hurrell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States
04:39
A110-14
climpred: weather and climate forecast verification in python (748915)
Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Aaron Spring, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
04:42
Discussion
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