OS020
El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate I

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 17:30-18:30
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Agus Santoso, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Conveners:  Michael J McPhaden, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Primary Liaison:  Agus Santoso, Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
Chairs:  Michael J McPhaden, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, United States, Agus Santoso, Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Jong-Seong Kug, Pohang University of Science and Engineering, Pohang, South Korea
OSPA Liaison:  Agus Santoso, Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
17:30
OS020-01
Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to greenhouse warming (Invited) (666145)
Wenju Cai1, Benjamin Ng2, Tao Geng3, Lixin Wu3, Agus Santoso4 and Michael J McPhaden5, (1)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, VIC, Australia, (2)Marine & Atmospheric Res, Aspendale, Australia, (3)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (4)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (5)NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, United States
17:34
OS020-02
Projected future changes in the spatiotemporal evolutions of El Niño (695336)
Hosmay Lopez, NOAA Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Sang-Ki Lee, University of Miami, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL, United States, Dongmin Kim, UM-CIMAS/NOAA-AOML, Miami, FL, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang University, Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Ansan, South Korea
17:38
OS020-03
ENSO modulation and mean-state interactions: a review (678626)
Alexey V Fedorov, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States, Shineng Hu, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, CA, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, Aaron F Z Levine, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, HI, United States and Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
17:42
OS020-04
On An Functional Relationship between ENSO’s Subsurface Temperature and Thermocline Depth (772626)
Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, Xinyi Yune, CIC-FEMD/ILCEC, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China and Wenjun Zhang, NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
17:46
OS020-05
Contrasting ENSO transition complexities between El Niño and La Niña: The underlying complexity dynamics and future changes (702631)
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Shih-Wei Fang, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
17:50
OS020-06
Impact of Annual Cycle on ENSO Variability and Predictability (722096)
Sang-Ik Shin, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Cecile Penland, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States
17:54
OS020-07
Predicting the Duration of El Niño and La Niña Events during 1954-2015 (707519)
Xian Wu1, Yuko Okumura1, Clara Deser2 and Pedro N DiNezio3, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
17:58
OS020-08
CMIP5 Model-analog Seasonal Forecast Skill: A Metric for ENSO simulations (712065)
Hui Ding, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
18:02
OS015-0008: The Andes and ENSO Statistics Correction
Weixuan Xu, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
18:05
OS015-0005: Distinct growth rates of the two ENSO types
Hong-Li Ren, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
18:08
Discussion
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