A196
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast Skill, Uncertainty Quantification, and Impact Modeling I

Tuesday, 15 December 2020: 10:00-11:00
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States
Conveners:  Forest Cannon, Scripps Institution of Oceanography - Center for Western Weather & Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States, Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States and Efthymios Ioannis Nikolopoulos, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Primary Liaison:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States
Chairs:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Forest Cannon, Scripps Institution of Oceanography - Center for Western Weather & Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States and Efthymios Ioannis Nikolopoulos, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
OSPA Liaison:  Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States
10:00
A196-01
A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030 (Invited) (702978)
Tim Palmer, University of Oxford, Physics/AOPP, Oxford, United Kingdom
10:04
A196-02
Application of Ensemble-based Sensitivity in Operational Observation Collection During Extreme Weather Events (Invited) (686895)
Ryan Torn, University at Albany, State University of New York, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
10:08
A196-03
Targeted in-situ observations improve hurricane intensity predictions, but not track predictions? (734584)
Jih-Wang Aaron Wang, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Laura Slivinski, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Gilbert P Compo, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Gary A Wick, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew Kren, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL, United States and Chesley McColl, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
10:12
A196-04
Using Machine Learning to Predict the Accuracy of Thunderstorm Forecasts from a Warn-on-Forecast Ensemble (667035)
Corey Potvin, National Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK, United States, Montgomery Flora, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States and Patrick Skinner, University of Oklahoma and NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK, United States
10:16
A196-05
Using machine learning to advance next-day probabilistic convective hazard prediction with convection-permitting models. (748477)
Ryan Sobash, Craig S Schwartz, David Ahijevych and David John Gagne II, NCAR/MMM, Boulder, CO, United States
10:20
A196-07
Uncertainty Quantification of Wildfire Forecast Error (731395)
Umberto Ciri, Martand Mayukh Garimella, Federico Bernardoni, Ruth Lauren Bennett and Stefano Leonardi, The University of Texas at Dallas, Mechanical Engineering, Richardson, TX, United States
10:24
A196-08
The effect of weather forecast uncertainty on machine-learning outage prediction modeling (685380)
Feifei Yang1, Diego Cerrai2 and Emmanouil N Anagnostou2, (1)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
10:28
Discussion
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