SM015
Data-Based Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Space Weather I

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 05:30-06:30
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Bharat Kunduri, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Conveners:  Mervyn P Freeman, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Primary Liaison:  Bharat Kunduri, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Chairs:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, Mervyn P Freeman, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Bharat Kunduri, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Bharat Kunduri, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
05:30
SM015-01
Network-based quantification of the Substorm Current Wedge (Invited) (667962)
Lauren Orr1, Sandra C Chapman1, Jesper W Gjerloev2 and Weisi Guo3, (1)University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, CV4, United Kingdom, (2)Johns Hopkins University - Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States, (3)Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom
05:36
SM015-02
Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements from Interplanetary Shocks Using Machine Learning (695581)
Andrew William Smith, Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Dorking, RH5, United Kingdom, Jonathan Rae, Northumbria University, Newcastle, United Kingdom, Colin Forsyth, Mullard Space Science Lab., Dorking, United Kingdom, Denny M. Oliveira, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Mervyn P Freeman, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom and David Jackson, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
05:41
SM015-03
Characterization of Sources of Ionospheric Scintillation in High Latitudes through Machine Learning (757881)
Marie Bals, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL, United States, Chintan Thakrar, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Physical Sciences, Daytona Beach, FL, United States and Kshitija Deshpande, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
05:46
SM015-04
Uncertainty Quantification in Data-Driven Ensemble Modeling of the Upper Atmosphere (Invited) (773380)
Tomoko Matsuo, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Chih-Ting Hsu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States
05:52
SM015-05
NextGen Space Weather Modeling Framework Using Physics, Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Quantification and GPUs (696329)
Gabor Toth1, Shasha Zou1, Yang Chen2, Xun Huan1, Bart van der Holst3, Ward Manchester1, Michael Warren Liemohn1, Yuxi Chen1, Zhenguang Huang1 and Alexander Gaenko4, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (4)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States
05:57
SM015-06
Data Assimilation Modelling of the Thermosphere (without any Thermospheric Observations) (694681)
Sean Elvidge, University of Birmingham, SERENE, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom and Gareth Dorrian, University of Birmingham, SERENE, Birmingham, United Kingdom
06:02
SM015-07
The Global Analysis of the Ionospheric Correlation Time and its Implications for Ionospheric Data Assimilation (681838)
Victoriya V Forsythe1, Irfan Azeem2, Geoff Crowley1, Roman A. Makarevich1 and Cheng Wang3, (1)Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Associates, LLC, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Associates, LLC, Louisville, CO, United States, (3)Beihang University, Research Institute for Frontier Science, Beijing, China
06:07
SM015-08
Bayesian model for uncertainty in the HOPE Mass Spectrometer time-of-flight matrix (771892)
Brian Larsen, Alisha Vira, Ruth M Skoug and Philip A Fernandes, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
06:12
SM015-09
Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time - CCMC/NOAA SWPC Partnership Final Report (676018)
M. Leila Mays1, Eric T Adamson2, Victor J Pizzo3, Peter J MacNeice4, Dusan Odstrcil5, Douglas Alan Biesecker6, Andrew Marble7, Carl J Henney8, Charles Nickolos Arge1, Shaela I Jones1, Samantha Wallace9, Aleksandre Taktakishvili10, Chiu Wiegand1, Jan Merka11 and Maria M Kuznetsova12, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (5)George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, (6)Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, United States, (8)Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, (9)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (10)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, (11)University of Maryland Baltimore County, Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute, Baltimore, MD, United States, (12)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
06:17
Discussion
See more of: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics
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