Improving Earth System Predictability: New Mechanisms, Feedbacks, and Approaches for Predicting Global Biogeochemical Cycles in Earth System Models

Session ID#: 119176

Session Description:
Predictions of future atmospheric CO2 levels are influenced by global carbon and nutrient cycles, climate interactions, and feedbacks to the Earth system. Relevant processes operate at different spatial and temporal scales and vary across terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems. Uncertain biogeochemical feedbacks may be altered by anthropogenic disturbance agents, including tropospheric O3, changes in nutrient and hydrological cycles, eutrophication, acidification, land cover/land use change, and potential climate intervention strategies. This session focuses on integrated understanding of feedback mechanisms that impact Earth system predictability, methods for evaluating and benchmarking process representations in Earth system models, approaches for constraining future climate projections (e.g., emergent constraints), and novel applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve predictive understanding of global biogeochemical cycles.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • ESA: Ecological Society of America -
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

0428 Carbon cycling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]


Primary Convener:  Forrest M. Hoffman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences & Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Conveners:  Min Xu, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, Katherine Dagon, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Precious Mongwe, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Oceanography, Cape Town, South Africa
Primary Liaison:  Forrest M. Hoffman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences & Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
See more of: Biogeosciences