“All-clear” Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Events: Understanding the Progress and Demands
“All-clear” Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Events: Understanding the Progress and Demands
Session ID#: 120769
Session Description:
Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the primary drivers of Space Weather. Representing hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts and create difficulties for space exploration. Timely prediction of SEPs and the ability to reliably forecast their absence ("all-clear" forecasts), is crucial from both the operational and scientific perspectives. Despite the high relevance for mission operations and crew safety, and interest from the operational agencies, the definition and approaches for “all-clear” SEP predictions, and their evaluation and validation, are still under discussion. The purpose of this session is to progress the development of "all-clear" SEP forecasting and discuss the corresponding operational terminology, and requirements. We welcome all contributions related to SEP prediction made by physics-based modeling and statistical / machine learning approaches. We especially encourage presentation of “all-clear” case and verification studies, and discussion of the concept of operations (CONOPS) for operational forecasting and mission planning considerations.
Index Terms:
7514 Energetic particles [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7974 Solar effects [SPACE WEATHER]
7984 Space radiation environment [SPACE WEATHER]
Primary Convener: Viacheslav M Sadykov, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, United States
Conveners: Irina Kitiashvili, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, Hazel M Bain, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States and Rafal Angryk, Georgia State University, Computer Science, Atlanta, GA, United States
Primary Liaison: Viacheslav M Sadykov, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, United States
See more of: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics