Quantifying the Performance of Space Weather Forecast Models
Quantifying the Performance of Space Weather Forecast Models
Session ID#: 121119
Session Description:
Disturbances in the near-Earth space weather environment caused by solar activities can have severe impacts on many facilities on which we have become increasingly dependent. Forecasting space weather by predicting sources of space weather disturbances, such as solar wind, coronal mass ejections, solar flares, and solar energetic particles, has become a very active area of research. Different tools, ranging from simple empirical models to highly complex physics-based numerical models, are being developed for forecasting. One of the most important aspects of a forecast is its performance. This session discusses various ways to quantify the performance scores and uncertainties in different space weather forecast models for solar and heliospheric conditions. Contributions regarding all aspects of space weather forecast model development are welcome. Example topics include using observations to constrain models, improving the physics and accuracy of numerical models, applying machine learning techniques for forecasting, and designing prediction performance scores.
Index Terms:
7513 Coronal mass ejections [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7519 Flares [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7954 Magnetic storms [SPACE WEATHER]
Primary Convener: Talwinder Singh, University of Alabama in Huntsville, CSPAR, Huntsville, AL, United States
Conveners: Ming Zhang, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL, United States, Jun Wang, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States and Peng Mun Siew, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Primary Liaison: Talwinder Singh, University of Alabama in Huntsville, CSPAR, Huntsville, AL, United States
See more of: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics