Extreme Weather Events: Forecast skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Impact Modeling
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Impact Modeling
Session ID#: 122609
Session Description:
Severe weather in the form of winter storms, tornadoes, hurricanes and heat waves is a cause of major disruptions in human lives, critical infrastructure and the environment. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Understanding forecast uncertainty (due to e.g. initial conditions and model error, or unresolved physical processes) improves situational awareness and influences confidence in impact modeling. This session is dedicated to the assessment of extreme weather prediction and associated impacts and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on:
- Forecasting of extreme weather across various temporal and spatial scales.
- Understanding sources of forecast uncertainty.
- Influence of weather forecast uncertainty on preparing for and managing impacts of severe weather (e.g. floods, power outages).
- Social vulnerability to extreme weather, particularly for sensitive populations and minorities.
Index Terms:
3329 Mesoscale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
Conveners: Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, Forest Cannon, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States; University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Efthymios I Nikolopoulos, Florida Institute of Technology, Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Melbourne, United States and Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States
Primary Liaison: Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences