Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction, Processes, and Services

Session ID#: 123353

Session Description:
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S ) prediction--2 weeks to a season ahead--is increasingly filling the gap between weather and seasonal climate forecasts, helping provide early warning of high-impact events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat, cold waves and their compound impacts to society. As the S2S forecast skill continues to improve through a better understanding of physical mechanisms involved, model advances and statistical calibration, more products are becoming available for decision makers in terms of applications and services.

This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of S2S science, including physical mechanisms (e.g. tropospheric interactions with the ocean/sea-ice, land surface, stratosphere, prognostic aerosols, MJO, tropics-midlatitude-poles teleconnections, cross-timescale interactions), model evaluation and diagnostics, predictability and prediction studies, extreme events, Model Output Statistics (calibration, verification, including Machine Learning), and climate services development (forecast formats, user-selected thresholds for exceedance probabilities), value and communication. Contributions making use of the S2S/SubX databases are particularly encouraged.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4343 Preparedness and planning [NATURAL HAZARDS]


Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Conveners:  Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States and Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences