Emergent Constraints on Climate Sensitivity Based on Recent Warming are Biased Low by Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effects

Kyle Armour1, Cristian Proistosescu2, Yue Dong3, Lily Hahn1, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth4, Andrew Pauling1, Robert Jnglin Wills4, Timothy Andrews5, Malte F Stuecker6, Stephen Po-Chedley7, Ivan Mitevski3, Piers Forster8 and Jonathan M Gregory9, (1)University of Washington, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States, (3)Columbia University, New York, United States, (4)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, (7)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (8)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (9)National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom