The cost of initialization shock for ENSO prediction

Nathan J L Lenssen1,2, Lisa M Goddard2, Pedro DiNezio1, Yochanan Kushnir3, Simon J Mason2 and Matthew Newman4, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, (2)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States