NH027
Why are Wildfires Becoming More Severe – Where is the Next One?
Session ID#: 156935
Session Description:
Living with wildfires and improving management to strengthen resilience, requires modeling with sufficient reliability and predictive skill to help us prepare better. Many wildfire prone landscapes are meaningful to people because of livelihood or cultural community. Increasing precision is needed to identify these areas and novel methods proven to merge human action with infrastructure and environmental data in a time of climate change. Proactive measures to live with wildfires means rethinking how we pool systemic risk and communicate the nature of vulnerability and exposure that people and institutions are taking on. This session comprises three elements: 1. Setting the stage of current modeling by users and decision makers; 2. Presenting potential solutions including new modeling methods; and 3. Creating a community of practice to share data, co-develop novel approaches, and evaluate the value of models for action.
Index Terms:
1906 Computational models, algorithms [INFORMATICS]
3390 Wildland fire model [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4334 Disaster risk communication [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: David S Green, NASA Headquarters, Application Science - Wildfires, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners: Christian Klose, Swiss Re, Armonk, United States, Nancy Watkins, Milliman, Inc., Property and Casualty, San Francisco, CA, United States, Edward Joseph Kearns, First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, NY, United States and David S Saah, University of San Francisco, Geospatial Analysis Lab, San Francisco, CA, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Sashi Sabaratnam, Naval Postgraduate School, National Security, Monterey, CA, United States
Improving wildfire severity prediction with evapotranspiration retrievals from thermal imaging (1096996)
Yun Yang, University of Maryland College Park, ESSIC, College Park, MD, United States, Martha Anderson, USDA ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD, United States, Zhiqiang Yang, USDA Forest Service, Ogden, UT, United States, Christopher Hain, National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder, United States, Forrest S Melton, CSU Monterey Bay, NASA ARC-CREST, Seaside, CA, United States and Feng Gao, USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, United States
Synergistic Integration of Wildfire Models to Simulate Fire Spread in the Wildland Urban Interface (1097422)
Fernando Jose Szasdi Bardales1, Negar Elhami Khorasani2, Kasra Shamsaei3, Timothy W Juliano4, Hamed Ebrahimian3, Branko Kosovic4 and Neil Lareau5, (1)University at Buffalo, Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (2)University at Buffalo, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)University of Nevada, Reno, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Reno, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University of Nevada, Reno, Physics, Reno, United States
Increase in Fire Intensity with Elevation Gain (1098005)
Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Boise, ID, United States, John Abatzoglou, University of California Merced, Management of Complex Systems, Merced, United States, Isabelle Butler, Boise State University, Boise, United States, Arash Modaresi Rad, Boise State University, Computing, Boise, United States and Ali Torabi Haghighi, University of Oulu, Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Oulu, Finland
Investigating Vorticity-Fire Interactions Using LANL's HIGRAD-FIRETEC (1118039)
Dorianis Mercedes Perez1,2, Jesse Canfield3, Rodman Linn1 and Kevin Speer4, (1)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Florida State University, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute (GFDI), Department of Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, United States, (3)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States, (4)Florida State University, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute(GFDI), Department of Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, United States
FPA-FOD-Plus Dataset: Physical, Social, and Biological Attributes for Improved Understanding and Prediction of Wildfire Ignitions and Size (1130240)
Yavar Pourmohamad, Boise State University, Boise, ID, United States, John Abatzoglou, University of California Merced, Management of Complex Systems, Merced, United States, Karen Short, US Forest Service Missoula, Missoula, MT, United States, Erica Fleishman, Oregon State University, Corvallis, United States, Erin Belval, US Forest Service, Fort Collins, United States and Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Boise, ID, United States
A stochastic machine learning model of wildfire activity in the Western United States (1131230)
Jatan Buch, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States; Columbia University, New York, United States, Park Williams, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, Caroline S. Juang, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States, Winslow Hansen, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, United States and Pierre Gentine, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States
Using ECOSTRESS to Monitor Wildfire Propagation (1132686)
Margarita Rivera1, Lauren Lowman2, Assaad Mrad3 and Tirtha Banerjee1, (1)University of California Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States, (2)Duke University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Durham, NC, UNITED STATES, (3)University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
On the trend of amplified drought in Nepal that can enhance the potential for Himalayan wildfires (1146767)
Binod Pokharel, Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu, Nepal and Binod Pokharel, Shankar Sharma, Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Matthew LaPlante, Robert R. Gillies, Sujan Khanal, Michael Wehner, Alan Rhoades, Kalpana Hamal8, Benjamin Hatchett, Wan-Yu Liu, Sarbajit Mukherjee, and Deepak Aryal
The Fire Weather Index Improved for Peatlands by Including Hydrological Modeling and L-band Microwave Observations (1149334)
Jonas Mortelmans1, Anne Felsberg2, Gabrielle J.M. De Lannoy1, Sander Veraverbeke3, Robert D Field4,5, Niels Andela6 and Michel Bechtold1, (1)Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium, (2)KU Leuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Leuven, Belgium, (3)Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (4)Columbia University, New York, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (6)Cardiff University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Establishing a Community Driven Wildfire Health (CDWH) Nexus System for Bridging the Gap between Trusted Data and Local Community Needs (1157891)
John J Qu1, Xianjun Hao2, Stephen D. Ambrose3, Sean Nolan3, Zhiliang Zhu4, Dave Green, Michael Berkowitz6, Vihaan Mathur7 and Wanting Sun8, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, United States, (3)SAIC, Climate Enterprise, Reston, United States, (4)U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States, (5)RESILIENT CITIES CATALYST (RCC), New York, United States, (6)Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, Alexandria, United States, (7)Columbia University, New York, United States
Study of mega fires in Portugal: surface, atmosphere and society perspectives (1159709)
Rui Salgado1, Flavio Tiago Couto1, Nuno Andrade1, Cátia Campos1, Filippe L.M. Santos1, Carolina Purificação1, Jean-Baptiste Filippi2, Roberta Baggio2, Susana Dias3, Nuno Almeida Ribeiro1, Nuno Guiomar1 and Jaime Serra1, (1)University of Évora, Évora, Portugal, (2)University of Corsica Pascal Paoli, SPE, Corte, France, (3)Instituto Politécnico de Portalegre, Portalegre, Portugal
Developing a Standardized Global Wildfire Risk Index for Disaster Risk Reduction and Insurance Applications (1167734)
Shubharoop Ghosh1, Michael Eguchi1, Janine Baijnath-Rodino2, Tirtha Banerjee2 and Charles K Huyck1, (1)ImageCat, Inc., Long Beach, CA, United States, (2)University of California Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States
Wildfire Risk Forecasting through Deep Learning using Meteorological, Environmental, and Remote-Sensing Data (1168077)
Pratyush Muthukumar1, Saketh Somayajula1, Ryan Dunning1, Kabir Nagrecha1, Hirad Hosseini1, Shaurya Pathak1, Dawn Comer2, Jeanne Holm2 and Mohammad Pourhomayoun1, (1)California State University Los Angeles, Department of Computer Science, Los Angeles, United States, (2)City of Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
Identifying Wildland Fire Risks in California Using Machine Learning and Multi-Source Observation Data (1168195)
Emily Tang, WT Woodson High School, Fairfax, United States, Xianjun Hao, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, United States and John J Qu, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Assessing the Impacts of California Wildfires on Air Quality using Remote Sensing Data and Machine Learning (1170668)
Vihaan Mathur, Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, Alexandria, United States, Xianjun Hao, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, United States and John J Qu, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Climate-adjusted Wildfire Risk Estimated at Property Resolution in the US (1173228)
Edward Joseph Kearns1, Michael Amodeo1, David Saah2, Christopher Lautenberger3, Carrie R Levine4, Jeremy Porter5 and Owen M Doherty6, (1)First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, NY, United States, (2)University of San Francisco, Environmental Science, San Francisco, CA, United States, (3)Reax Engineering, Inc, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)Conservation Science Partners, Truckee, CA, United States, (5)City University of New York -Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, New York, United States, (6)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Drivers of Wildfire-Related Residential Structure Loss Across the Western United States (2001-2020) (1175018)
Maxwell Cook, University of Colorado Boulder, Longmont, Colorado, UNITED STATES, Jennifer Balch, University of Colorado Boulder, CIRES, ESIIL, Boulder, United States, Lise St. Denis, University of Colorado at Boulder, Earth Lab, Boulder, CO, United States, Stefan Leyk, University of Colorado at Boulder, Geography, Boulder, CO, United States and Johannes Uhl, University of Colorado at Boulder, Geography, Boulder, United States
The Impacts of Climate Change on Wildland Fire Regimes in California (1177804)
Jenna Cai, Langley High School, McLean, United States, Xianjun Hao, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, United States and John J Qu, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Mapping Post-fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-on Imagery (1177973)
Yeshey Seldon1, Casey Menick1, Haley Stuckmeyer2 and Heidi Roger1, (1)NASA DEVELOP Program - SSAI, Colorado, Fort Collins, United States, (2)NASA DEVELOP Program- SSAI, Colorado, Fort Collins, United States
The impact of climate change on fire danger over the contiguous United States (1178309)
Maria Klariza Madrazo, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, Huikyo Lee, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Altadena, CA, United States, Arezoo Khodayari, California State University, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, Weile Wang, CSUMB & NASA/AMES, Seaside, United States and Taejin Park, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States
Advanced Wildfire Planning and Response, Introducing Artificial Intuition/Quantitative Complexity Management (QCM) (1178716)
Stephen D. Ambrose, Science Applications International Corporation Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, Sean Nolan, SAIC, Climate Enterprise, Reston, United States, Dave Jones, StormCenter Communications, Halethorpe, MD, United States and John P. Timler, Science Applications International Corporation Reston, Combat and Strategic Systems, Reston, United States
Increasing nocturnal downslope winds over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and implications for wildfires activity (1180946)
Charles Jones1, Callum Thompson1, Leila Carvalho2 and Don Lucas3, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States
Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Wildland Fire Behavior (1182184)
Lynn Montgomery1, Anthony Nowicki2, Camilo Duarte2, Jacob Sprague2, Christian Picofazzi2 and James Kaiser2, (1)Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Cupertino, CA, United States, (2)Lockheed Martin Corporation, Arlington, United States
Overnight Burning Wildland Fires in North America (1186890)
Kaiwei Luo, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Xianli Wang, Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Canada, Mark C De Jong, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste Marie, Canada and Mike D Flannigan, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, Canada
A Data Assimilation Approach for Improved Operational Wildland Fire Forecasting using WRF-Fire (1190502)
Kasra Shamsaei1, Timothy W Juliano2, Matthew Roberts3,4, Hamed Ebrahimian1, Branko Kosovic2, Neil Lareau5 and Ertugrul Taciroglu6, (1)University of Nevada, Reno, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Reno, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Irvine, CA, United States, (4)University of Nevada Reno, Atmospheric Science, Reno, United States, (5)University of Nevada, Reno, Physics, Reno, United States, (6)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
How far in time we can accurately predict wildfire? A case study of a sub-watershed in Colorado, USA using Machine Learning algorithms (1196672)
Moazzam Ali Rind, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States and Jennifer C Adam, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States
Understanding the Role of Environmental Metrics Affecting Wildfire Vegetation Burn Severity (1200432)
Iyare Oseghae1, Kiran Bhaganagar2 and Alberto M Mestas-Nunez1, (1)University of Texas at San Antonio, NASA Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments(CAMEE)/Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, San Antonio, United States, (2)University of Texas at San Antonio, NASA Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments(CAMEE)/Department of Mechanical Engineering, San Antonio, United States
