NH025
Understanding and Modeling Complex Risks in Coupled Human-Environment Systems

Session ID#: 157117

Session Description:
Losses from extreme weather events increased globally over the last decades and are expected to further increase in the future. These losses arise from a complex interplay between human and environmental systems, whose outcomes are often hard to predict. Risk quantification and management increasingly rely on the use of model simulations of various kinds (e.g., agent-based models, system dynamic models), and of a diverse set of techniques (e.g., extreme value analysis, scenario analysis). The value of these tools for risk quantification and management improved over the years. Yet, there are still significant gaps that offer many research opportunities, including a better treatment of uncertainties, an improved integration of feedback mechanisms between climatic and socio-economic changes, and the need of expanding models from single to multi-hazards and -vulnerabilities.

Furthermore, systemic risks arising from the interaction of phenomena within complex and highly interconnected human-environmental systems are poorly understood. Systemic risks are emerging risks and, thus the estimation of their probabilities and expected losses or the calibration of models creates methodological challenges. With these types of risks, commonly used statistical techniques may fall short and, thus, new methods to quantify and understand the systemic nature of risk are needed.

Our session aims to be forum for studies on climate change related systemic risks, multi-hazards and multi-vulnerabilities, modeling the natural and human Earth system, modeling of socio-economic impacts, approaches to resilience and adaptation.

Index Terms:

4306 Multihazards [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4314 Mathematical and computer modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Christian L. E. Franzke, Institute for Basic Science, Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Conveners:  Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, Jürgen Scheffran, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany and Colin Raymond, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Alessio Ciullo, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
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Alexander C Ruane, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
 
Robust Amplifications in Multivariate Risks in Global Drought Propagations (1049000)
Poulomi Ganguli1, Avijit Majhi1 and Rohini Kumar2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Agricultural and Food Engineering, Kharagpur, India, (2)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH – UFZ, Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany
 
Stochastic Catalog Convergence: Reliability of Severe Thunderstorm Perils Loss Estimation in the Continental U.S. (1053094)
Enrique Rosero and Sarah Bobby, Verisk, Extreme Events Solutions, Boston, United States
 
Advancing Complex Systems Approaches Towards Equity, Actionable Knowledge, and Principles for Governance (Invited) (1072339)
Katharine J Mach, University of Miami, Environmental Science and Policy, Miami, FL, United States
 
Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility (1084736)
Lisa Thalheimer, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States and Filiz Garip, Princeton University, Department of Sociology, Princeton, United States
 
The Residual Risk of Extreme Floods: Climate Change, Equity and Biodiversity Loss implications (1086224)
Anna Serra-Llobet, University of California Berkeley, Center for Catastrophic Risk Management, Social Science Matrix, Berkeley, United States, Adda Athanasopoulos-Zekkos, University of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, United States, Thi Minh Ha Bui, University of Social Sciences and Humanities – Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Charlotte Da Cunha, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, CEARC-OVSQ, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France, Peter Fröhle, Hamburg University of Technology, River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg, Germany, G Mathias Kondolf, University of California Berkeley, Center for Environmental Design Research, Berkeley, CA, United States, Natasa Manojlovic, Hamburg University of Technology, Institute of River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg, Germany, Kenichi Soga, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, Thong Nhat Tran, Ho Chi Minh City University of Natural Resources and Environment, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States and Hsiao-wen Wang, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
 
Integrating top-down and bottom-up risk management strategies against indirect effects of natural disasters: Insights from an agent-based modelling approach (1086560)
Alessandro Taberna1, Tatiana Filatova1 and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler2, (1)Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, (2)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
 
IN-CORE - Computational Platform for Community Resilience Planning (1125196)
Jong Lee1, Chris Navarro1, Santiago Núñez-Corrales1, Katie Naum1, Chen Wang1, Yong Wook Kim1, Rob Kooper1, John van de Lindt2 and Jamie Brown Kruse3, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Urbana, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Fort Collins, United States, (3)East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States
 
A Systems Approach to Quantify Risks for Networks Exposed to Multiple Hazards (1173954)
Juan Carlos Lam1, Tim Grose2, Josh Lee3, Chris Gray4, Chris Tzeng4, Matt Moore5 and Mike Flood1, (1)WSP USA, Climate, Resilience and Sustainability, Washington, DC, United States, (2)WSP USA, Climate, Resilience and Sustainability, San Francisco, CA, United States, (3)San Bernardino County Transportation Authority, San Bernardino, CA, United States, (4)Western Riverside Council of Governments, Riverside, CA, United States, (5)WSP USA, Water, San Diego, CA, United States
 
Heterogeneous triad structures in socio-ecological networks: linkage with system resilience (1183314)
Woi Sok Oh, Princeton University, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton University, Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ, United States, Nico Wunderling, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany and Simon Levin, Princeton University, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Remote Sensing to Mitigate Financial Risk for Hydropower Producers in Data-Scarce Regions (1199524)
Rosa Isabella Cuppari, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, Tamlin Pavelsky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, United States and Gregory W Characklis, Gillings School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
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