B022
Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System

Session ID#: 157745

Session Description:
How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions affect this trajectory? In a world facing rapid environmental change, the most pressing biogeoscience questions are fundamentally about forecasting. Due to advances in data availability, models, statistics, and decision support, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making biogeoscience more predictive at short and long time scales. Furthermore, a forecasting approach will not only advance biogeoscience more quickly, but will make it more relevant to society, especially when combined with multidisciplinary approaches that partner with action-oriented stakeholders and social scientists. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theory, models, data assimilation, and uncertainty quantification, targeting data deficiencies, and improving the usability of forecasts in decision-making. This session highlights methodological and application-based research on forecasting biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and ecology across terrestrial and aquatic systems.
Index Terms:

0466 Modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0499 New fields (not classifiable under other headings) [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1910 Data assimilation, integration and fusion [INFORMATICS]
1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]

Primary Convener:  Michael Dietze, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States and Ecological Forecasting Initiative
Conveners:  Christine Rollinson, The Morton Arboretum, Center for Tree Science, Lisle, United States, Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Department of Biological Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States and Ecological Forecasting Initiative
 
Forecasting vegetation dynamics in an open ecosystem by integrating deep learning and environmental variables (1068819)
Yingjie Hu1, Yue Ma2, Glenn R Moncrieff3, Jasper Slingsby4, Adam Wilson5, Brian S. Maitner1 and Ryan Zhenqi Zhou2, (1)University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, (2)University at Buffalo, Geography, Buffalo, United States, (3)South African Environmental Observation Network, Pretoria, South Africa, (4)University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, (5)SUNY Buffalo, Geography, Buffalo, NY, United States
 
BioFI - The Biodiversity Forecasting Initiative to Understand Population, Community, and Ecosystem Function Under Climate Change. (1086147)
Brian Joseph Enquist, University of Arizona, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tucson, AZ, United States, Cory Merow, University of Connecticut, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Storrs, CT, United States, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, United States, Amy Frazier, Arizona State University, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Tempe, AZ, United States, Laura Duncanson, University of Maryland, College Park, United States, Emmanouil Anagnostou, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, Bradley Boyle, University of Arizona, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tucson, United States, David D Breshears, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States, Kacey C Ernst, University of Arizona, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tucson, AZ, United States, Wendy Foden, South Africa National Parks, Cape Town, South Africa, Rachael V. Gallagher, Macquarie University, Department of Biological Sciences, North Ryde,, Australia, Christopher A. Klausmeier, Michigan State University, Kellogg Biological Station, Hickory Corners, United States, Elena Litchman, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, United States, Jon Norberg, Stockholm University, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden, Pablo A. Marquet, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, Brian S. Maitner, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, Guy Midgley, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, Mercedes Pascual, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, Andrew Rominger, The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States, Van Savage, University of California, Department of Biomathematics, Los Angeles, United States, John Silander Jr., University of Connecticut, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Storrs, United States, Jasper Slingsby, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, Jens-Christian Svenning, Aarhus University, Bioscience, Aarhus C, Denmark, Adam Wilson, SUNY Buffalo, Geography, Buffalo, NY, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, Jeannine Cavender-Bares, University of Minnesota, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Saint Paul, MN, United States, Patrick Roehrdanz, Conservation International, Arlington, United States and Lee Hannah, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States
 
Pygoscelis Penguin Colony Locations and Diet Compositions along the West Antarctic Peninsula could be Driven by High Retention and Accumulation of Simulated Krill (1091722)
Katherine Hudson Gallagher, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, United States, Heather Lynch, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Michael S Dinniman, Old Dominion University, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA, United States, Casey Youngflesh, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States and Christian Che-Castaldo, Stony Brook University, Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook, NY, United States
 
Approaches to Development and Assessment of Ecological Forecasts, With Recent Examples From Lake Erie (Invited) (1094141)
Mark Rowe, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Craig Stow, NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Richard P Stumpf, NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Peter J Alsip, University of Michigan, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Qianqian Liu, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, United States
 
Ecological forecasting of ponderosa pine forest biomass in the Interior West US (Invited) (1098123)
Kelly Heilman1, Michael Dietze2, Robert J DeRose3, Stefan Klesse4, Andrew O Finley5, John Shaw6, Malcolm Itter7, Andria Dawson8 and Margaret Eleanor Katharine Evans1, (1)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, (3)Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, (4)WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, (5)Michigan State University, Forestry, East Lansing, United States, (6)US Forest Service, Logan, UT, United States, (7)University of Massachusetts, Amherst, United States, (8)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
ENSO prediction modulated by interactive phytoplankton feedback (1103407)
Woojin Jeon, Jeonbuk University, Jeonju, South Korea, Jong-Yeon Park, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, Anthony John Rosati, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Charles A Stock, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, John P Dunne, NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States and Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
 
Identifying challenges to increase collaboration between field ecologists and modelers (1117628)
Adrian V Rocha, University of Notre Dame, Department of Biological Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States, Gordon B Bonan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Michael R Sanclements, NEON, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Near-term predictions of multiple marine stressors (1118219)
Samuel Mogen, University of Colorado, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States and Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Soil carbon assimilation through PEcAn State Data Assimilation framework (1118320)
Qianyu Li1, Dongchen Zhang2, Alexis Helgeson2, Michael Dietze3 and Shawn Serbin1, (1)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Upton, NY, United States, (2)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, (3)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States
 
State Dependence of Terrestrial Carbon Flux Predictability (1144461)
Istvan Dunkl, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and Victor Brovkin, MPI for Meteorology, Department of the Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany
 
Detecting legacies of millennial scale climate oscillations on modern biodiversity: lessons from a proxy-model comparison (1150390)
David Fastovich1, David Helmers2, Volker Radeloff2, Benjamin Zuckerberg2 and John W Williams3, (1)Syracuse University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Madison, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Geography & Center for Climatic Research, Madison, United States
 
Projecting transitions from positive to negative net ecosystem productivity merging earth system models with global observation databases (1150853)
Heng Huang1, Salvatore Calabrese1 and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe2, (1)Texas A&M University, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, College Station, United States, (2)Texas A&M University College Station, Ocean Engineering, College Station, TX, United States
 
Forecasting pasture productivity and ecosystem services at scale: insights and challenges combining cross-scale datasets with a canopy process model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach (1162656)
Chris Wilson1, Hunter Smith2, Jose Dubeux3 and Stacy Smith2, (1)University of Florida, Agronomy, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, (2)University of Florida, Agronomy, Gainesville, FL, United States, (3)University of Florida, North Florida Research and Education Center, Marianna, United States
 
Partitioning model-data uncertainties in a terrestrial carbon cycle reanalysis across NEON sites. (1162984)
Dongchen Zhang1, Michael Dietze2, Alexis Helgeson1, Shawn Serbin3, Qianyu Li3 and Joshua Bowers4, (1)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, (3)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Upton, NY, United States, (4)University of Wisconsin - Oshkosh, Oshkosh, United States
 
Validation of the PEcAn Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecast Using NASA SMAP Satellite Soil Moisture Observations (1168350)
Joshua Bowers, University of Wisconsin Oshkosh, Oshkosh, WI, United States, Dongchen Zhang, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States and Michael Dietze, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States
 
Using Space-for-Time to Understand the Empirical Dynamics of Tropical Rainforests (1179997)
Hannah O'Grady, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA, United States, Les Kaufman, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States and Ethan Deyle, Boston University, Department of Biology, Boston, MA, United States
 
Incorporation of Fe oxides as an Additional Cd Partitioning Phase in the Presence of Humic Acid for Development of Sediment Toxicity Prediction Model in Oxic Conditions (1196775)
Buyun Jeong, Seoul National University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Jinsung An, Hanyang University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ansan-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea and Kyoungphile Nam, Seoul National University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
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