A068
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations as Tools for Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals, and Impacts
Session ID#: 158348
Session Description:
Single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) from Earth System Models (ESM) or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have recently been generated to investigate internal variability and forced changes of the climate system—and to aid the interpretation of the observational record by providing a range of historical climate trajectories. They offer expanded training grounds for observational data reconstruction and machine learning methods, and enable interdisciplinary assessments of large-scale climate dynamics, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. These datasets are used to explore the impacts of climate change and variability on natural disasters, agriculture, air pollution or energy systems.
We invite studies using SMILEs for:
- Reinterpretation of the observed record in light of internal variability
- Forced changes and impacts of natural climate variability in past and future climates
- New approaches to attribute observed events or trends
- Assessment of extreme and compound events
- Robust decision making in conjunction with CMIP ensembles
- Testbeds for method development.
Index Terms:
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Primary Convener: Danielle E Touma, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners: Nicola Maher, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES/ATOC, Boulder, United States, Flavio Lehner, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States and Yohei Takano, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Danielle E Touma, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Wind Driven Ocean Redistribution of Heat Leads to Increased Anthropogenic Surface Warming over 1979-2014 in CESM2 (1050160)
Kay McMonigal, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States, Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, NC, United States and Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
A North Atlantic warming hole without ocean circulation (1063486)
Chengfei He1, Amy C Clement2, Mark A Cane3, Lisa Murphy Goes2, Jeremy Klavans4 and Tyler Mitchell Fenske5, (1)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States, (2)University of Miami, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, (5)Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States
Mechanisms of Enhanced Historical Indian Ocean Warming: Insights from the CESM1 Large-Ensemble Coupled Simulations (1070342)
Yiqun Tian, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, United States, Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States and Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Local Climate Impacts in Overshoot Scenarios (1084929)
Peter Pfleiderer, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany and Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Immediate and long-lasting impacts of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on ocean oxygen and carbon inventories using the CESM-LENS (1092620)
Amanda R Fay, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Galen A McKinley, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Yassir Eddebbar, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Michael Levy, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Matthew C Long, National Center for Atm Res, Boulder, CO, United States, Holly Olivarez, University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Studies Program, Boulder, CO, United States and Rea Rustagi, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States
The Atmospheric Response to Internal Ocean Variability in the CESM1 Large Ensemble (1095064)
James G Larson1, James W Hurrell2, Lantao Sun2, Young-Oh Kwon3 and David W J Thompson2, (1)Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
Substantial contribution of internal variability to satellite-era tropospheric warming inferred from CMIP6 large ensembles (Invited) (1095614)
Stephen Po-Chedley1, John Fasullo2, Nicholas Siler3, Elizabeth A Barnes4, Zachary Michael Labe5, Benjamin D Santer6 and Celine Bonfils1, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (4)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States, (5)Princeton University & NOAA GFDL, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States, (6)University of California Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, Los Angeles, United States
Identifying the drivers of the observed springtime cooling trend in northern North America with large ensemble simulations (1111909)
Zachary Michael Labe, Princeton University & NOAA GFDL, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States, Nathaniel C Johnson, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Thomas L Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Impact of External Forcing on North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the CESM2 Large Ensemble (1115963)
Qinxue Gu1, Melissa Gervais2, Gokhan Danabasoglu3, Who M Kim3, Frederic S Castruccio3 and Elizabeth Maroon4, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Robust Changes in North America’s Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability (1117737)
Sanjiv Kumar1, Candida Dewes2, Matthew Newman3 and Yanan Duan1, (1)Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States
Are predictability timescales of sea surface temperature in the CESM Large Ensemble consistent with observations? (1122722)
Martha W Buckley1, Timothy M DelSole1, Laurie L Trenary2 and Laure Zanna3, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)Center for Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Studies Fairfax, Atmospheric,Oceanic, and Earth Science, Fairfax, VA, United States, (3)University of Oxford, Dept of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom
Understanding Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty using SMILEs (1124652)
You-Ting Wu1, Yu-Chiao Liang1, Yan-Ning Kuo2, Flavio Lehner2, Michael J Previdi3, Lorenzo M Polvani4, Min-Hui Lo1 and Chia-Wei Lan1, (1)National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan, (2)Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States, (3)Columbia University, Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States
Exploring Relationships Between Emerging Climate Change Signals and Species Range Shifts (1124927)
Jared Bowden1, Adam J Terando2, Madeleine Anne Rubenstein3, Sarah R Weiskopf3, Shawn L Carter4, James Fishel5, Laura Suarez Gutierrez6 and Hai Thanh Nguyen7, (1)North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States, (2)US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC, United States, (3)National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, VA, United States, (4)US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States, (5)George Mason University, Geographic and Cartographic Sciences, Fairfax, United States, (6)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (7)North Carolina State University Raleigh, Applied Ecology, Raleigh, United States
Revisiting the Relationship Between the North Pacific High and Upwelling Winds Along the West Coast of North America in the Present and Future climate (1130226)
Hui Ding, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, United States and Mingfang Ting, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States
Subsurface Ocean Temperature Responses to the Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in the North Pacific (1135919)
Jia-Rui Shi, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole, United States and Susan Anne Wijffels, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
ASSESSMENT OF FORCED AND INTERNAL MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE CESM LAST MILLENNIUM ENSEMBLE AND OBSERVATIONAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS (1139849)
Alejandro Fernandez, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, United States, Byron A Steinman, University of Minnesota Duluth, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory, Duluth, United States, Michael E Mann, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States and Daniel J. Brouillette, Penn State University, State College, United States
Recent Atlantic Multidecadal Climate and Hurricane Activity Driven by External Forcing (1148896)
Amy C Clement1, Chengfei He2, Sydney Kramer3, Lisa Murphy Goes1, Mark A Cane4, Tyler Mitchell Fenske5 and Jeremy Klavans3, (1)University of Miami, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States, (2)The Ohio State University, Columbus, United States, (3)University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, (4)Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States, (5)Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States
Projecting Climate-Driven Changes in Extreme Ozone Pollution under Natural Variability and Uncertain Climate Sensitivity (1169311)
James D East1, Erwan Monier2,3, Rebecca Saari4 and Fernando Garcia-Menendez1, (1)North Carolina State University, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, United States, (2)University of California Davis, Land, Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, (3)University of California Davis, Air Quality Research Center, Davis, CA, United States, (4)University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Human Emissions Drive the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1185559)
Jeremy Michael Michael Klavans, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Pedro DiNezio, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble (1187343)
Colin Raymond, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, Kai Kornhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell, Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, United States, Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
An impact of spring land-surface conditions over and around the Tibetan Plateau on the early summer Asian monsoon circulation from an AGCM large-ensemble (1187580)
Hiroshi G Takahashi, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan, Shiori Sugimoto, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan and Tomonori Sato, Hokkaido University, Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Sapporo, Japan
Utilizing causal inference on CESM2 large ensembles for Great Salt Lake predictability (1189827)
Siiri Bigalke1, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang2, Wei Zhang3 and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto1, (1)Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Logan, UT, United States, (2)Utah State University, Department of Plant, Soils and Climate, Logan, UT, United States, (3)Utah State University, Logan, United States
Global Warming Level of Emergence and Related Exposure to Climate Extremes (1191957)
David Gampe1, Raul R. Wood1, Magdalena Mittermeier1, Clemens Schwingshackl2 and Andrea Boehnisch1, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, (2)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Quantifying the SST Seasonality variations using Large Ensemble Simulations (1192141)
Anila RANI Jo1, Ryohei Yamaguchi2, June-Yi Lee3, Sahil Sharma2 and Sun-Seon Lee4, (1)Pusan National University, Department of Climate Physics, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, (3)Pusan National University, Department of Climate System, Busan, South Korea, (4)Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
