A033
Bridging the Gap from Climate to Extreme Weather: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

Session ID#: 159180

Session Description:
There is a growing need to understand how extreme weather phenomena will change in the future under climate change. Such a goal requires insight into how such phenomena, including but not limited to severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme precipitation, and heat waves, emerge within the climate system in general. This session seeks novel research bridging the gap between climate and extreme weather with an emphasis on understanding both the underlying climate physics that generate such events and the mechanisms by which their statistics vary across climate states, including global warming. Analyses employing a wide range of methodologies are welcome, including idealized and high-resolution climate modeling, observational and historical data analysis, and theory.
Co-Organized:
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1610 Atmosphere [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3309 Climatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3372 Tropical cyclones [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Jane Wilson Baldwin, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Conveners:  Gabriel J Kooperman, University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens, GA, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
 
Lack of change in the average duration of blocking events in a warming climate (Invited) (1048829)
Pedram Hassanzadeh1, Ebrahim Nabizadeh2 and Sandro W. Lubis2, (1)Rice University, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Houston, TX, United States, (2)Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
 
A Storm-Resolving Data Set for Development of Next-Generation Atmospheric Models (1058184)
William Drew Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Division of Climate and Ecological Sciences, Berkeley, CA, United States and Edward Mischel Molter, University of California Berkeley, Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale (1061112)
Matthias Rothlisberger and Lukas Papritz, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Potential impact of future warming on the June 2012 North American derecho (1063192)
Jianfeng Li1, Yun Qian1, L. Ruby Leung2, Xiaodong Chen3, Zhao Yang4 and Zhe Feng5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Lab, Richland, United States, (5)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
 
Tracking Mesoscale Convection Systems in the US in E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework (1074263)
Wei-Ching Hsu, University of Georgia, Athens, United States, Gabriel J Kooperman, University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens, GA, United States, Walter M Hannah, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Akintomide A Akinsanola, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, United States and Angeline G Pendergrass, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Evaluation of MAX-DOAS observations of near-surface water vapor in Tsukuba, Japan from 2011 to 2021 (1076893)
Keisuke Kamei and Hitoshi Irie, Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
 
Reconciling two disparate estimates of long-term trends in tropical cyclones (1080087)
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Evolution of Convective Energy and Inhibition before Instances of Large CAPE (1080675)
Philip Tuckman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, Vince Agard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States and Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Synthesising Approaches to Uncover Climate Change Impacts on Extra-tropical Storms (1085625)
Nicholas Leach1,2, Claire Burke1, Sally Woodhouse1, Shirin Ermis3, Fraser C Lott4, Christopher Roberts5, Antje Weisheimer6 and Myles Robert Allen7, (1)Climate X, London, United Kingdom, (2)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (3)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (6)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Oxford, United Kingdom, (7)University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom
 
LES Study of the Interaction between Mountain Waves and Typhoon Outer Region Rainfall under Global Warming (1087150)
Jianan Chen, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong and Xiaoming Shi, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
 
Role of tropical cyclone heat potential on the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (1089216)
Abish B and Athira P Ratnakaran, Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies, Kochi, India
 
Relationship between tropical cyclone frequency change and tropical cloud feedback (1093354)
Tsung-Lin Hsieh, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States, Bosong Zhang, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States and Chenggong Wang, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States
 
Forced trends in the tropical Pacific and global tropical cyclones: An investigation using a statistical-dynamical downscaling model (Invited) (1094027)
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Suzana Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Boniface Fosu, Mississippi State University,, Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
 
Extremely Warm European Summers Driven by Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Heat Inertia (1105309)
Lara Hellmich1,2, Laura Suarez Gutierrez1, Daniela Matei1 and Wolfgang A. Müller1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
 
Extreme Humid Heat Variability during the South Asian Summer Monsoon (1109360)
Catherine Ivanovich, Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, United States, Deepti Singh, Washington State University Vancouver, School of the Environment, Vancouver, WA, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States and Radley Horton, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
Tying Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns to Northeastern U.S. Winter Storm Precipitation with Self-Organizing Maps (1113298)
Michelle Gore, Colin M. Zarzycki and Melissa Gervais, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States
 
The Regional Variation and Association of Heat Extremes and Blocking in Current and Projected Climates (1114229)
Yi Ming, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, James F Booth, CUNY-City College, New York, United States and Veeshan T Narinesingh, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States; Princeton University, Princeton, United States
 
Investigating soil moisture-heat stress coupling using an idealized model (1120785)
Qinqin Kong and Matt Huber, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States
 
How well do HighResMIP models represent landfalling tropical cyclones? (1122029)
Ana Bolivar, Penn State University, Department of Meteoroology and Atmospheric Science, State College, United States and Colin M. Zarzycki, Penn State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, State College, United States
 
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation-Tropical Cyclone Relationship in a Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Model (1124826)
Christina Francis, Columbia University, New York City, MD, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Suzana Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Christina M Patricola, Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States, Nathan Erickson, Iowa State University, Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA, United States and Christina Karamperidou, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States
 
Soil Moisture Modulates Temperature Extremes (1127502)
Adam Bauer, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, United States, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States and Cristian Proistosescu, University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, United States; University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States
 
A scaling framework to understand factors contributing to CAPE future distributional changes (1134436)
Ziwei Wang, University of Chicago, Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States, Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States, Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Department of Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States and Elisabeth J Moyer, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States
 
Present-day Evaluation of Extreme Precipitation over the United States: An Inter-comparison of Three Configurations of E3SMv1 (1134707)
Akintomide A Akinsanola, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, United States, Gabriel J Kooperman, University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens, GA, United States, Walter M Hannah, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Angeline G Pendergrass, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States and Wei-Ching Hsu, University of Georgia, Athens, United States
 
Record-breaking High Temperature in July 2021 over East Sea and Possible Mechanism (1138009)
MinHo Kwon, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Kang-Jin Lee, Yonsei university, Seoul, Korea, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Hyoun-Woo Kang, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ocean Climate Prediction Center, Busan, South Korea
 
Marine Heat Waves in East Asia: its Characteristics and Relation to Climate Variability (1142580)
Hyung-ju Park and Hanna Na, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Understanding the Response of Asian Monsoon Mean and Extreme Rainfall to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: Mechanism, Implication, and Uncertainty (1145528)
Yujia You, Columbia University of New York, New York, NY, United States and Mingfang Ting, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States
 
Scaling of Sub-Daily Precipitation Extremes with Temperature Over North Atlantic and Europe Depends on Storm Type (1147752)
Jennifer Louise Catto1, Andrew J Dowdy2, Donald Cummins3, Hayley J Fowler4, Philip Sansom3 and David Stephenson3, (1)University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, (2)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (3)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle, United Kingdom
 
Changes in high frequency internal variability alter extreme heat stress projections (1150320)
Karl Joseph Stein1, Keith B Rodgers2, Tamas Bodai2, Christian Franzke3, Axel Timmermann1, Ryohei Yamaguchi2, David Battisti4, Sun-Seon Lee1, Graeme Alastair MacGilchrist5, Sarah Schlunegger6, Karena Yan7, Kyung-Sook Yun8, Jim Edwards9 and Nan A Rosenbloom9, (1)Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, (2)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, (3)Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, (4)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (6)Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (7)Princeton University, Princeton, United States, (8)Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), (9)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A Theory of Near-Surface Relative Humidity Over Land (1151452)
Kaighin A Mccoll, Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States and Lois Tang, Harvard University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Rough Amazon Suppresses South American Tornado Potential (1152131)
Funing LI, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States, Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States, Brian Medeiros, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
 
Extreme Heat Waves: The Thermodynamic Response of the Atmosphere to Atmospheric Blocking (1157666)
Emily Neal, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States and Noboru Nakamura, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States
 
The influence of soil moisture on the historic 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave (1166506)
Robert Conrick, University of Washington Seattle, Seattle, United States and Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
 
Subseasonal weather forecasts imply climatological statistics of extreme stratospheric events (1166739)
Justin Moshe Finkel, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, Edwin P Gerber, New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, United States, Dorian S Abbot, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States and Jonathan Weare, New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, United States
 
Probing the Unfathomable: Ensemble Boosting for Physical Climate Storylines of Unseen Heat Extremes Such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave (1175114)
Erich M Fischer1, Urs Beyerle1, Claudia Gessner1, Luna Bloin-Wibe1, Flavio Lehner2,3, Angeline G Pendergrass4,5, Sebastian Sippel1, Joel Zeder6 and Reto Knutti1, (1)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, United States, (6)ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
 
Detect and Predict Heatwaves in India (1175509)
Fusheng Yang1, Ran Feng2, Victor Hugo Lachos Davila1, Charles Kaye-Essien3 and Prakash Kashwan4, (1)University of Connecticut, Department of Statistics, Storrs, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Department of Geosciences, Storrs, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, School of Public Policy, Storrs, United States, (4)University of Connecticut, Department of Political Science, Storrs, United States
 
Impact of tropical cyclone winds on ENSO (1176043)
Hui Li, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Aixue Hu, NCAR, Boulder, United States and Gerald Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
ENSO Impact on Winter Precipitation in the Southeast United States through a Synoptic Climate Approach (1176419)
Jianhua Qian, Savannah River National Laboratory, North Augusta, SC, United States, Brian Viner, Savannah River National Lab, Aiken, SC, United States, Stephen R Noble Jr, Desert Research Institute Reno - DRI, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Reno, United States, David W Werth, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC, Aiken, SC, United States and Cuihua Li, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY, United States
 
The Extreme Cold In The Context Of A Warmer Planet And A Cooler Solar Cycle (1183365)
Andrew Bai and Annie Bai, St Paul Academy and Summit School, St Paul, United States
 
Automated Quality Control of Daily Temperature Observations in Northern Climates (1185770)
Pei-Ling Wang, Francis W Zwiers and Faron S Anslow, University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
Climatic Influences on Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Ida (1187886)
Sofia Menemenlis, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States, David Luet, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, United States, Lucas Harris, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, United States, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Princeton University, AOS Program, Princeton, United States, Kun Gao, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Matt Morin, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, James A Smith, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, Mary Lynn Baeck, Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States and Stephan Fueglistaler, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Emergence of multiple feedbacks in the extreme and persistent warmth over Siberia in 2020 (1190729)
Flavio Lehner1,2, Erich M Fischer3, Matthias Rothlisberger4, Isla Simpson5, Clara Deser6, John Fasullo7, Peter Hitchcock1, Zachary Michael Labe8, Sebastian Milinski2, Sebastian Sippel3 and Jakob Zscheischler9, (1)Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)Princeton University & NOAA GFDL, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States, (9)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany
 
Data Science Approach for Understanding the History of Weather Extremes of New York City (1191490)
Sameeha Malikah, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States and Tarendra Lakhankar, NOAA CESSRST, City College of New York, New York, NY, United States
 
Extratropical storms fundamentally shape the maritime surface wind climatology (1194182)
Larry W O'Neill1, Ralph F Milliff2 and Dudley B Chelton Jr1, (1)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
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