H051
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) - Science and Decision Support Needs

Session ID#: 160162

Session Description:
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a water management approach that uses atmosphere and watershed observations together with improved weather and hydrologic forecasts to support reservoir managers in more flexibly retaining or releasing water to manage weather extremes while improving water supply, flood-risk reduction, and environmental benefits. Operating rules for most US reservoirs were codified decades ago and the rules generally do not employ (historically almost nonexistent) skillful hydrologic forecasts. With modern forecast improvements, and with reservoirs facing new resource demands and challenges from changing climates and watershed conditions, prospects for incorporating forecast information directly into operating rules and decision making are the focus of a growing number of scientific and management studies. This session seeks presentations on old and new strategies and studies of observations, modeling, benefit/risk assessments, and decision supports that allow FIRO efficacy to be evaluated and FIRO implementations to be designed for various reservoir systems and settings.
Index Terms:

1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
1884 Water supply [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Duncan Axisa, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
Convener:  Robert Stabler Webb, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Hydrologic Modeling Research for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operation (FIRO), Prado Dam (1179288)
Charles W Downer1, Stephen J Turnbull2, Jaime A. Graulau-Santiago3, Aaron Byrd4, Nawa Raj Pradhan1, Clay Lahatte1, Ceyda Polatel5 and Jose Paredez6, (1)Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, MS, United States, (2)Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, United States, (3)US Army Corps of Engineer, Jacksonville District, IMC, West Palm Beach, United States, (4)Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg, Vicksburg, MS, United States, (5)South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL, United States, (6)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles District, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
The FIRO Paradigm: Evolution of Reservoir Operations Strategies from a US Army Corps of Engineers Perspective (1180467)
Joe Forbis, Shingle Springs, California, UNITED STATES and Cary Alan Talbot, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States
 
Streamflow Observations in Support of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Objectives (1182640)
Garrett McGurk1, Marty Ralph2, Cary Talbot3, John James4, Adam Hutchinson5, Anna Maria Wilson2, Ava Cooper1, Benjamin Downing1, Charles Downer6, Charles Johnck7, Douglas Alden8, Kaitlyn Chow7, Edwin Sumargo9, Jonathan Newby10, Richard Castro10, Jon Sweeten11, Kerstin Paulsson1, Lindsey Jasperse1, Ethan Morris1, Stephen J Turnbull12, Carolyn Hecht7 and Hillary Beckmeyer1, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, United States, (4)Yuba Water Agency, Marysville, CA, United States, (5)Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, CA, United States, (6)Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, United States, (7)Yuba Water Agency, Marysville, United States, (8)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CW3E), Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (9)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (10)USGS Geological Survey, Menlo Park, United States, (11)US Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Wainwright, United States, (12)Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, United States
 
Expanding Access to FIRO Benefits with the FIRO Screening Process (1182977)
Caitline Barber, Eastern Research Group, Inc., Lexington, United States, Elissa Yeates, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, United States, Curt Aikens, Yuba Water Agency, Marysville, CA, United States, Joseph Forbis, US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, United States, Kenneth C Nowak, Bureau of Reclamation Research Office, Lakewood, CO, United States, Cary Talbot, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, United States, F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States and Arleen ODonnell, Eastern Research Group, Inc, Lexington, United States
 
Case Study: Forecast Informed Operations in Reservoirs with Small Outlet Capacity (1184687)
Darshan Baral1,2 and Jack Xu2, (1)San Jose, CA, UNITED STATES, (2)Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Jose, United States
 
Tracking atmospheric river forecast through time: intra-season and seasonal assessments of precipitation and integrated vapor transport in support of FIRO objectives (1185228)
Rachel R Weihs1, Laurel L De Haan2, David Reynolds3, Daniel Steinhoff1, Brian Kawsenuk4, Luca Delle Monache5, Alison Cobb6 and F Martin Ralph5, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Univ California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, (4)University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States, (5)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (6)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States
 
Accounting for Uncertainty of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions in the Operations of Prado Reservoir in Riverside County, California (1186451)
Chris Delaney, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, CW3E, La Jolla, CA, United States, Robert Hartman, Robert K. Hartman Consulting Associates, Roseville, United States, John Mendoza, Sonoma Water, Santa Rosa, CA, United States, Greg D. Woodside, Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, United States, Adam Hutchinson, Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, CA, United States and F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Using hydrologic forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) (1192374)
Hak Su Lee1,2, James Ward3,4, Freddy Camacho3,4, Yuqiong Liu2,3, Sunghee Kim1,4, James D Brown5, Behzad Asadieh1,4, Mark A Fresch1, Hank Herr3, Ernie Wells6, Adao Henrique Matonse7, Jerry Mead7, Brett Whitin8, Chris Delaney9, Erick Boehmler10, Seann M Reed11 and Tyler Madsen11, (1)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, United States, (2)LEN Technologies, Oak Hill, United States, (3)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (4)Lynker, Leesburg, United States, (5)Hydrologic Solutions Limited, Southampton, United Kingdom, (6)NOAA/NWS, Analyze, Forecast and Support Office, Silver Spring, United States, (7)NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Queens, United States, (8)NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, CA, United States, (9)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (10)NOAA/NWS Northeast River Forecast Center, Norton, United States, (11)NOAA/NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, United States
 
Advances Toward FIRO Objectives Supported by Observations – Progress and Future Directions (1201037)
Anna Maria Wilson1, F Martin Ralph2, Cary Talbot3, John James4, John Leahigh5, Adam Hutchinson6, Greg D. Woodside7, Michael Anderson8, Douglas Alden9, Ava Cooper10, Chris Delaney11,12, Charles Downer13, Robert Hartman14, Alan Haynes15, Chad Hecht16, Brian Kawzenuk17, Garrett McGurk10, David Reynolds18, Edwin Sumargo19, Stephen J Turnbull20, Rachel R Weihs1, Brett Whitin21, Lindsey Jasperse10, Peter Yao22 and Benjamin Downing10, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, United States, (4)Yuba Water Agency, Marysville, CA, United States, (5)California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, United States, (6)Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, CA, United States, (7)Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, United States, (8)California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States, (9)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CW3E), Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (10)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (11)Sonoma Water, Santa Rosa, CA, United States, (12)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, CW3E, La Jolla, CA, United States, (13)Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, United States, (14)Robert K. Hartman Consulting Associates, Roseville, United States, (15)NOAA NWS CNRFC, Sacramento, United States, (16)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (17)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States, (18)University of Colorado at Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, (19)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (20)Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, United States, (21)NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, CA, United States, (22)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Division of Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Soil Moisture Data Assimilation for Improved Watershed Modeling in FIRO Reservoir Operations (1175358)
Stephen J Turnbull, Engineer Research and Development Center Vicksburg, Vicksburg, MS, United States and Charles W Downer, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Hydrologic Systems Branch, Vicksburg, MS, United States
 
Operational Evaluation of Synthetic Ensemble Forecasts for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) (1067906)
Zachary Brodeur, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, Chris Delaney, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, CW3E, La Jolla, United States and Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
 
Rainfall Forecast Accuracy required for Pre-release at Multi-purpose Dams in Japan (1076738)
Hayato Fujita and Shinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
 
Short-Term Streamflow Forecast Integrated with “Dynamic Drawdown” Operation for Flood Control Applied to a Large Watershed in Southern South America (1090217)
Cassia Paranhos, Companhia Paranaense de Energia, Curitiba, PARANA, BRAZIL, Camila Freitas, Companhia Paranaense de Energia Elétrica - COPEL, Curitiba, Brazil, Fernando M Fan, UFRGS Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Institute of Hydraulic Research, Porto Alegre, Brazil and Reinaldo Silveira, Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná - Simepar, Curitiba - Pr, Brazil
 
Potential For Using Monthly Flood Forecasts To Utilize Flood Control Storage And Meet Downstream Water Demand Over the Southeastern United States (1099061)
Jessica Levey, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States, Sankar Arumugam, NC State University, Raleigh, NC, United States and Natalie von Turkovich, Duke University, Durham, United States
 
Missouri River Basin Streamflow Simulation using Meteorological Data (1136855)
Vu Dao1, Jinyang Li2, Bita Analui3 and Kuo-lin Hsu2, (1)University of California Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States, (2)University of California Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States, (3)University of California, Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States
 
Employing FIRO as a climate change adaptation strategy in California (Invited) (1138458)
Michael Anderson, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, United States
 
72-Hour Inflow Forecast Verification for Yuba-Feather FIRO (1153793)
Edwin Sumargo1, Ava Cooper2, Rachel R Weihs3, Ming Pan1, Robert Hartman4 and Brett Whitin5, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)Robert K. Hartman Consulting Associates, Roseville, United States, (5)NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, CA, United States
 
A Framework for the Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations on the Yuba-Feather Watersheds (1160765)
Thomas Corringham1, Arleen ODonnell2 and Duncan Axisa1, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (2)Eastern Research Group, Inc, Lexington, United States
 
Phase III of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Research and Development within the US Army Corps of Engineers: A National Expansion Pathfinder (1162502)
Cary Alan Talbot, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States and Joseph Forbis, US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, United States
 
Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO): Overview and pilot programs (1162991)
Duncan Axisa, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, Cary Talbot, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, United States, Robert Hartman, Robert K. Hartman Consulting Associates, Roseville, United States, Arleen ODonnell, Eastern Research Group, Inc, Lexington, United States and F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Potential Applications of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to Enhance Integrated Water Management (1173638)
Lydia Holland, Sacramento, CA, UNITED STATES and Roger Putty, GEI Consultants, Inc., Sacramento, United States
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