H102
S2S Metrics and Diagnostics, Emphasizing Coupling Processes

Session ID#: 160483

Session Description:
NOAA’s Unified Forecast System strives to improve extended-range precipitation prediction, particularly location, type, timing, and amount.  However, precipitation is an outcome of processes interacting throughout the coupled earth system; further, the water cycle links the synoptic and climate scales, as well as mesoscale and planetary scale phenomena.  To improve precipitation prediction, the research community must trace errors to their physical causes and the representation of these causes in models.

This session seeks presentations on model system metrics and process-level diagnostics connecting subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction errors to phenomena and their teleconnections, such as MJO/ENSO/QBO impacts on the extratropics, soil moisture/snow/vegetation impacts on atmosphere, Arctic ice distribution impacts on the jet stream, Sudden Stratospheric Warming impacts on troposphere , and others. Such metrics and process-level diagnostics will help diagnose the causes of model errors and assess model improvement. Metrics and diagnostics connecting processes across coupled air-ocean-land-ice interactions are especially welcome.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AMS: American Meteorological Society -
Index Terms:

0545 Modeling [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1854 Precipitation [HYDROLOGY]
3322 Land/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Primary Convener:  Mark A Olsen, NOAA, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Conveners:  Yan Xue, NOAA NWS OSTI Modeling Program Division, Silver Spring, United States and Jessie Carmen, NOAA, Weather Program Office, Washington DC, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Christine Bassett, FedWriters/NOAA, NOAA/OAR/Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States
 
Improving NWS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast with Unified Forecast System: Highlights of Modeling and Analysis Results (1058728)
Yan Xue1, Avichal Mehra2, Cristiana Stan3, Fanglin Yang4, Michael J Barlage2, Yuejian Zhu5, James L Kinter6, Vijay Tallapragada7, Wanqiu Wang8 and Deepthi Achuthavarier1, (1)NOAA NWS OSTI Modeling Program Division, Silver Spring, United States, (2)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, (3)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (4)NOAA NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (5)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (6)George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (8)NOAA/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States
See more of: Hydrology
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