NG004
Climate Variability Across Scales and Climate States

Session ID#: 160649

Session Description:
We welcome contributions that improve quantification, understanding, and prediction of climate variability in the Earth system across space and timescales through case studies, idealized or realistic modeling, synthesis, and model-data comparison studies that provide insights into past, present and future climate variability on local to global, and synoptic to orbital timescales.

This session aims to provide a forum to present work on:

  1. Characterization of climate dynamics using a variety of techniques (e.g. scaling and multifractal techniques and models, recurrence plots, variance analyses).
  2. Relationship between mean state changes (e.g. glacial to interglacial or pre-industrial to present to future), and higher-order moments of relevant climate variables, including extreme-event occurrence and predictability.
  3. Role of the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land-surface processes in fostering long-term climate variability through linear – or nonlinear – feedbacks and mechanisms.
  4. Attribution of climate variability to internal and/or forced dynamics, including natural (e.g. volcanic and solar) and anthropogenic forcing changes.
  5. Synchronization and pacing of glacial cycles through dynamical interaction of external forcing (e.g. orbital forcing) and internal variability.Characterization of the probabilities of extremes, including linkage between slow climate variability and extreme event recurrence.

Members of the PAGES working group on Climate Variability Across Scales (CVAS) and others are welcome

Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3344 Paleoclimatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4475 Scaling: spatial and temporal [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]

Primary Convener:  Raphaël Hébert, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany and Mara McPartland
Conveners:  Shaun Lovejoy, McGill Univ, Montreal, QC, Canada, Mara Young McPartland, University of Minnesota, Geography, Environment & Society, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Mara McPartland
Student/Early Career Convener:  Mara Young McPartland, University of Minnesota, Geography, Environment & Society, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Mara McPartland
 
The classical and fractional heat equations with radiative conductive boundary conditions (1061454)
Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Definition of a comprehensive succession of major transitions that shaped the Earth climate during the past 66 Myr (1066003)
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Géosciences Montpellier, Montpellier Cedex 05, France, Valerio Lucarini, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom and Witold Bagniewski, École Normale Supérieure and PSL University, Geosciences Dept. and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris, France
 
Examining Alternative Scenarios of Nonlinear Glacial Cycle Dynamics (1071410)
Kirstin Koepnick, Harvard University, Applied Mathematics, Cambridge, United States and Eli Tziperman, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA., Cambridge, United States
 
Investigating Predictable Decadal Internal Variability in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre using the MPI-ESM-LR (1095937)
Adjete Tekoe1, Emily M Gordon2 and Marybeth Arcodia2, (1)Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, United States
 
Cross-scale Causal Information Flow from El Niño Southern Oscillation to Precipitation in East China (1142848)
Yasir Latif, Prague, Liben, CZECH REPUBLIC; Institute of Computer Science ASCR, Complex System, Prague, Czech Republic and Milan Palus, Inst Computer Science, Prague 8, Czech Republic
 
Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era (Invited) (1170019)
Jason E Smerdon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States and Kevin J Anchukaitis, University of Arizona, School of Geography, Development, and Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States
 
Emergence of Low-Frequency Temperature Variability in Instrumental Data and Model Simulations (1186903)
Raphaël Hébert and Thomas Laepple, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
See more of: Nonlinear Geophysics
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