H011
Advances in modeling hydrological extremes and engineering practices

Session ID#: 161787

Session Description:
Hydrological extreme events, such as heavy rainfall and snowstorms, fluvial floods, and droughts are receiving increased attention from the public and national security communities because of their more frequent occurrence and more devastating impacts on public safety and critical infrastructures. In 2021, Texas suffered a major power crisis due to severe winter storms, while the Pacific Northwest suffered from an unprecedented heatwave and wildfires. Parts of California experienced cascaded extreme events: flooding, wildfire, then post-fire flooding. Due to climate change, these kinds of extreme events will likely become more common and severe in the future, potentially impacting millions of people. This section will explore the recent advances in understanding and modeling hydrological extremes and the engineering practices and standards to mitigate the impacts. We encourage submissions to the following and related topics:

1) Improved scientific understanding of hydrological extremes and their dependence and changes under a warming climate.

2) Improved modeling and uncertainty characterization and quantification of hydrological extremes using data-driven, dynamical, and statistical-dynamical approaches.

3) Bridging the gap between science and engineering: Technology transfer practices for adaptation and social resilience to hydrological extremes (e.g., IDF curves, design standards, early-warning system, natural-based solution).

Index Terms:

1804 Catchment [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Hongxiang Yan, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States
Conveners:  Yonas Demissie, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States and Mark S Wigmosta, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
 
Toward A Universal Portrayal of Extreme Events: Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk (Invited) (1044259)
Hamid Moradkhani1, Keighobad Jafarzadegan2, Peyman Abbaszadeh1,3, Hamed Moftakhari1, Atieh Alipour2, David F Muñoz1,4, Farnaz Yarveysi2 and Keyhan Gavahi1, (1)The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States, (2)The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (3)Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Virginia Tech, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Blacksburg, United States
 
Drought Monitoring Using Meteorological and Hydrological Indices from the Alpine Drought Observatory Database – the Exceptional 2022 Summer Drought in Northern Italy (1049424)
Daniela Quintero1, Giacomo Bertoldi2, Alice Crespi3, Alexander Jacob3, Bartolomeo Ventura3, Felix Greifeneder3, Klaus Haslinger4 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi1, (1)University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, United States, (2)EURAC, Institute for Alpine Environment, Bolzano, Italy, (3)EURAC, Institute for Earth Observation, Bolzano, Italy, (4)ZAMG, Climate Research Department, Vienna, Austria
 
Flood risk and uncertainty: Prospects and Pragmatism for management and reduction (Invited) (1053291)
Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, MA, United States, Baptiste Francois, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States and Katherine Schlef, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States
 
Evaluation of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Networks for Simulating Extreme Floods in Japan (1057129)
Feyera A Hirpa, Sam Lamont, Yu Zhang, Zhuo Liu, Yi Liu, Hoda El Safty, Yawen Shen, Liping Liu, Ting Li, Brett Baker and Shabaz Patel, One Concern, Inc., Menlo Park, CA, United States
 
Hydrological flash drought forecasting using meteorological flash drought indices and machine learning approaches – A case study in the Mississippi River Basin (1060279)
Sophia Bakar1, Daniela Quintero2, Manh-Hung Le3, Hyunglok Kim4, Stephen Adams5, Peter A. Beling6 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi2, (1)University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (2)University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, United States, (3)NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER, Washington, United States, (4)USDA ARS, Beltsville, United States, (5)Virginia Tech, Hume Center for National Security and Technology, Arlington, United States, (6)Virginia Tech, Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Hume Center for National Security and Technology, Arlington, United States
 
Using Earth Observations to Monitor Opportunities for Prescribed Fires (1067738)
Avery Walters, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States, Ujjwal Narayan, Richland County Administration, Jersey City, NJ, United States, Scott Goodrick, US Forest Service Athens, Athens, GA, United States, Joseph O'Brien, USDA, Athens, United States, John D Bolten, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi, University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, United States
 
Identifying cost-effective low impact development (LID) under climate change: A multi-objective optimization approach (1077840)
Yasir Abduljaleel, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States and Yonas Demissie, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States
 
Historical Soil Moisture Drought Breaking Probabilities in Australia (1085258)
Anjana Devanand, University of New South Wales, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Jason Peter Evans, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Gab Abramowitz, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Sanaa Hobeichi, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia and Andy Pitman, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Effects of Forest Characteristics on Hydrologic Extreme Events across the Climate Gradients of the Conterminous United States (1092966)
Hongxiang Yan1, Zhuoran Duan2, Mark S Wigmosta3, Ning Sun3, Ethan D Gutmann4 and Jeffrey Richard Arnold5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)MITRE Corporation, Climate + Environmental Sciences Office, McLean, United States
 
Model-based Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP): Implications for Design Storms under a Changing Climate (1104994)
Zhang Jinghan1, Long Yang1 and Yu Miao2, (1)School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing, China
 
A multi-objective framework for designing green infrastructure in response to future scenarios (1105549)
Kexin Liu, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Global Engineering for Development, Environment and Society, Tokyo, Japan and Tsuyoshi Kinouchi, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, Yokohama, Japan
 
Applications of Machine Learning and Physical, Hydrologic Modeling for Estimating 7-Day 10-Year Low Flows for Climate Altered Futures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States (1109493)
Andrew DelSanto1, Richard N Palmer2 and Konstantinos Andreadis2, (1)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, (2)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States
 
Risk-based approach for adaptation decision making in coastal stormwater infrastructure (1113663)
Christopher Chini, Air Force Institute of Technology, Systems Engineering and Management, Bellbrook, OH, United States and Ashish Shrestha, Air Force Institute of Technology, Dayton, United States
 
Development of the Prairie Hydrology Design and Analysis Product (PHyDAP) (1115270)
Colin J Whitfield1, Zhihua He2, John W Pomeroy2, Christopher Spence3 and Kevin Shook4, (1)University of Saskatchewan, School of Environment and Sustainability and Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (2)University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (3)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (4)University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology and Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
 
Extreme Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency and Design Discharge Estimates for Forest Road-Stream Crossings Design and Ecological Applications (1137504)
Sourav Mukherjee, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Hot Springs National, AR, United States, Devendra Man Amatya, US Forest Service Cordesville, Cordesville, SC, United States, Anna M Jalowska, US Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, Durham, NC, United States, John L Campbell, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Durham, NH, United States, Sherri Johnson, USFS Pacific Northwest Reserch Station, Corvallis, OR, United States, Kelly Elder, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Sudhanshu Sekhar Panda, University of North Georgia, Institute for Environmental Spatial Analysis, Oakwood, United States, Johnny Grace, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Tallahassee, FL, United States and Duncan Kikoyo, Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, United States
 
Development of Regional Severity-Duration-Frequency and Severity-Areal extent-Frequency Curves for an Indian Basin Under Warming Climate (1139282)
Rajarshi Datta1, Manne Janga Reddy2 and Saswata Nandi1, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Mumbai, India
 
A New Hydrologic Model to Simulate Spatially-Distributed Design Floods and Flood Inundation throughout Watershed (1142181)
Yonas Demissie, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States
 
Multivariate Non-stationary Drought Frequency Analysis in a Changing Climate. (1147280)
Sahana V, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India and Arpita Mondal, Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering and Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
 
Assessment of the NOAA Atlas and Radar-Based IDF Curves (1150910)
Jungho Kim1, Mike Amodeo2, Evelyn Shu3, Edward Joseph Kearns3 and Jeremy Porter4, (1)First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, United States, (2)First Street Foundation, New York City, United States, (3)First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, NY, United States, (4)City University of New York -Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, New York, United States
 
Underestimation of Frequent Floods When Using Annual Maxima for Frequency Analysis: Regional Variability, Theoretical Foundations, and Possible Solutions. (1154289)
Francesco Dell'Aira, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, United States, Antonino Cancelliere, University of Catania, Catania, Italy and Claudio I Meier, University of Memphis, Department of Civil Engineering, Memphis, TN, United States
 
Flood risk assessment and identification of hotspots under CMIP6 scenarios using a coupled physical modeling approach: A case study over the Mahanadi River Basin, India (1154681)
Saswata Nandi, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India and Sabyasachi Swain, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
 
Low Flow Augmentation in the Ohio River: What Happens If We Stop? (1162887)
Gaurav Atreya, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States and Patrick Ray, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cincinnati, United States
 
By how much do we really underestimate extreme precipitation due to rain gauge totalization? A systematic analysis of variability in rainfall sampling adjustment factors (1163613)
Claudio I Meier, University of Memphis, Department of Civil Engineering, Memphis, TN, United States, Patricio I Munoz, University of Memphis, Department of Civil Engineering, Memphis, United States and Apeksha Marasini, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, United States
 
Understanding the Influence of Climate Change on Hydrological Extremes of the Ganga River Basin (1173063)
Supriya Tiwari1, Bhaskar R Nikam1, Vaibhav Garg1 and Varun Tiwari2, (1)Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, ISRO, Water Resources Department, Dehradun, India, (2)North Carolina State University Raleigh, Center for Geospatial Analytics, Raleigh, United States
 
A novel framework to estimate design storm distribution and depth in a non-stationary and climate change context in Chile (1173539)
Eduardo Muñoz Castro, University of Chile, Department of Civil Engineering, Santiago, Chile and Ximena Vargas, Universidad de Chile, Department of Civil Engineering, Santiago, Chile
 
Review of the Depth-Area-Reduction-Factor and Analysis of the Texas Historical Storms for the Design Storms (1174954)
Dongfeng Li, University of Texas at Arlington, Civil Engineering, Arlington, TX, United States, Nick Z. Fang, Univ of TX-Arlington-Civil Eng, Arlington, United States, Simeon Benson, The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth, United States, David Curtis, West Consultants, Folsom, CA, United States, Luciana Cunha, WEST Consultants Inc., Folsom, United States and Jerry Cotter, US Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District, Fort Worth, United States
 
Spatial analysis of future climate change risk to stormwater management infrastructure in the U.S. (1176179)
Thomas Johnson, U.S. EPA, ORD, Washington, DC, United States, Jonathan Butcher, Tetra Tech, Research Triangle Pk, United States, Saumya Sarkar, Tetra Tech, Research Triangle Pk, NC, United States and Afshin Shabani, Tetra Tech, Research Triangle Park, United States
 
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for Local Intense Precipitation at Nuclear Power Plant Sites (1177715)
Rajiv Prasad1, Arun Veeramany2, Rajesh K Singh2 and Joseph Kanney3, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (3)Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, MD, United States
 
Prolonged Drought in a Mediterranean EcoRegion Suppresses Wildfire Impacts on Hydrology (1183654)
Michelle E Newcomer1, Jennifer C Underwood2, Sheila F Murphy3, Craig Ulrich4, Todd Schram5, Stephen R Maples6, Erica R Siirila-Woodburn7, Jasquelin Peña8, Marcu Trotta5, Jay Jasperse9, Donald Seymour5 and Susan S. Hubbard10, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (2)USGS, Water Mission Area, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)USGS, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Sonoma County Water Agency, Santa Rosa, United States, (6)Sonoma Water, Santa Rosa, United States, (7)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, CA, United States, (8)University of California Davis, Davis, United States, (9)Sonoma Water, Santa Rosa, CA, United States, (10)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States
 
Impacts of Forest Cover on Hydrologic Extreme Events over the Conterminous United States: Changes and Mechanisms (1184259)
Zhuoran Duan1, Hongxiang Yan2, Mark S Wigmosta1, Ethan D Gutmann3 and Jeffrey Richard Arnold4,5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)MITRE Corporation, Climate + Environmental Sciences Office, McLean, United States, (5)US Army Engineer Responses to Climate Change Program, Seattle, United States
 
In a semi-arid area, how can global soil moisture products be used to estimate the antecedent soil moisture conditions for flood modeling? (1187617)
El Mahdi El Khalki, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, International Water Research Institute, Benguerir, Morocco, Yves Tramblay, HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier Cedex 05, France, Christian Massari, Research Institute of the Geo-Hydrological Protection, Perugia, Italy, Luca Brocca, CNR-INRI, Perugia, Italy, Vincent Simonneaux, Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Toulouse, France, Simon Gascoin, Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere, Toulouse Cedex 9, France and Mohammed Elmehdi Saidi Sr, Cadi Ayyad University, Geology, Marrakech, Morocco
 
A Meta-analysis of Field Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity and Numerically Simulated Rainfall Partitioning for Post-Wildfire Burned Watersheds across the Western United States (1187640)
Cornelis Reijm, Colorado School of Mines, Geology and Geological Engineering, Golden, CO, United States, Danica L Roth, Colorado School of Mines, Department of Geology and Geological Engineering; Department of Geophysics; Hydrologic Science & Engineering Program, Golden, CO, United States and Caroline Bedwell, Colorado School of Mines, Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Golden, CO, United States
 
A Regression-based Regionalization of Soil Conservation Services (SCS) Curve Number Parameters across the United States (1189539)
Tahneen Jahan Neelam1, Scott Steinschneider2 and Todd Walter1, (1)Cornell University, Biological and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States, (2)Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
 
Implementing Hydrologic Design to Address Non-Stationary Climate (1189704)
Mark S Wigmosta1, Hongxiang Yan2, Zhuoran Duan3, Ning Sun1, Ethan D Gutmann4 and Jeffrey Richard Arnold5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Hydrology, Richland, WA, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)MITRE Corporation, Climate + Environmental Sciences Office, McLean, United States
 
Improving extreme weather generation and spatial variability of weather generators based on resampling using the Direct Sampling algorithm (1192107)
Jorge Luis Luis Guevara Guevara Diaz1, Maria Julia De Castro Villafranca Garcia1, Daniela Szwarcman1, Debora Lima Santos2, Chinedum Eluwa3, Dilermando Queiroz Neto2, Leonardo Pondian Tizzei2, Bianca Zadrozny1, Campbell Watson4, Maysa Malfiza Garcia de Macedo2 and Priscilla Barreira Avegliano2, (1)IBM Research, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, (2)IBM Research, Sao Paulo, Brazil, (3)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, (4)IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, United States
 
Effective Rainfall - A proxy for Identifying Meteorological Drought (1194506)
Vasala Saicharan and Shwetha H R, National Institute of Technology Karnataka(NITK), Surathkal, Department of Water Resources and Ocean Engineering, Mangalore, India
 
Coupled Meteorology and Hydrology Modelling to Forecast Flood Extreme Events: Case Study of Pune, India (1200688)
Dev Niyogi1, Pallavi G2, Mohamed Niyaz2, Srujan Gavhale2, Arun Dwivedi2, Sagar Pokale2, Gouri Kadam2, Akshara Kaginalkar2 and Pradeep Mujumdar3, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX, United States, (2)Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, HPC- Scientific and Engineering Applications Group, Pune, India, (3)Indian Institute of Science, Civil Engineering, Bangalore, India
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