SM026
Solar Wind Uncertainty and its Impact on Geospace Physics, Modeling, and Data Analysis
Session ID#: 161886
Session Description:
Our understanding of magnetosphere and ionosphere response to solar wind driving depends heavily on measurements of the solar wind upstream of the magnetospheric bow-shock. These measurements are widely used in data analysis, numerical simulations, and in empirical coupling functions to assess the geospace responses to upstream drivers. However, in most of these studies, drivers are incorporated through simplified assumptions. Some of these assumptions stem from ignoring the bow-shock/magnetosheath plasma, neglecting the uncertainties in the propagation times, lack of information regarding the spatial structure of solar wind, disregarding instrument uncertainty, the presence of large data gaps, especially during geomagnetically active times, and lack of a complete understanding of the time history of the geospace system, etc. This session aims to focus on variability and uncertainties in the solar wind, assumptions about the solar wind drivers, and how these impact our models and understanding of the geospace system. We invite studies investigating the formulation and propagation of the solar wind uncertainties and their effects on the magnetosphere-ionosphere response that use but are not limited to data analysis, machine learning-based feature importance studies, bias and variance analysis, ensemble modeling, and numerical experiments.
Index Terms:
2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions [MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS]
2794 Instruments and techniques [MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
Primary Convener: Nithin Sivadas, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners: Dogacan Su Ozturk, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, Brian Walsh, Boston University, Center for Space Physics, Boston, United States and Homayon Aryan, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Mei-Yun Lin, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Urbana, IL, United States
Neural Network Models of the Near-Earth Solar Wind and Magnetosheath (Invited) (1066085)
Connor O'Brien, Boston University, Center for Space Physics, Boston, MA, United States, Brian Walsh, Boston University, Center for Space Physics, Boston, United States, Ying Zou, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States, Samira Tasnim, German Aerospace Center Neustrelitz, Neustrelitz, Germany and Huaming Zhang, University of Alabama in Huntsville, COMPUTER SCIENCE, Huntsville, United States
Investigation of the Effect of Solar Wind Data Simplifications on Ground Magnetic Perturbations Prediction Performance of Geospace Physics-Based Models (1106899)
Norah Kaggwa Kwagala1, Cecilia Norgren1, Michael Hesse2, Therese Moretto Jorgensen2, Gabor Toth3, Susanne Flø Spinnangr1, Hakon Kolsto1, Michael Heyns4 and Joseph WB Eggington4, (1)University of Bergen, Space Plasma Physics Group, Bergen, Norway, (2)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (4)Imperial College London, Physics, London, United Kingdom
Estimation and Prediction of Solar Wind Propagation from L1 Point to Earth’s Bow Shock (1108902)
Samira Tasnim1, Ying Zou2, Claudia Borries1, Carsten Baumann3, Brian Walsh4, Krishna Khanal5, Connor O'Brien6 and Huaming Zhang7, (1)German Aerospace Center Neustrelitz, Neustrelitz, Germany, (2)The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States, (3)German Aerospace Center, Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Space Weather Impact, Neustrelitz, Germany, (4)University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (5)University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, United States, (6)University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, United States, (7)University of Alabama in Huntsville, COMPUTER SCIENCE, Huntsville, United States
Uncertainties in Simulation of Ground Magnetometer Records Arising From Solar Wind Input Errors (1120469)
Qusai Al Shidi1, Matti Mikael Ala-Lahti2, Tuija I Pulkkinen3 and Austin Brenner1, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland, (3)Aalto University, Aalto, Finland
The impact of surface charging on the first particle and electric field measurements by the JUICE Langmuir probes (1131541)
Mika K. G. Holmberg1, Caitriona Mary Jackman2, Matthew G Taylor3, Bayane michotte De Welle4, Olivier Witasse3, Jan-Erik Wahlund5, Stanislav V Barabash6, Nicolas Altobelli7, Fabrice Cipriani3, Gregoire Deprez8 and Hans Huybrighs9, (1)Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, Dublin, Ireland, (2)Dublin Institute of Advanced Studies, Dublin, Ireland, (3)ESA/ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, (4)Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas, Université Paris Saclay, Palaiseau, France, (5)IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden, (6)Swedish Inst Space Physics, Kiruna, Sweden, (7)European Space Agency, Villanueva de la Canada, Spain, (8)ESA, Noordwijk, Netherlands, (9)Khalifa University, Abu Dabhi, United Arab Emirates
An open platform for assessing solar wind model solutions at Earth (1145299)
Martin Reiss1,2, Karin Muglach1,3 and COSPAR ISWAT: Ambient Solar Wind Validation Working Team (H1-01), (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (2)Austrian Space Weather Office, Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Graz, Austria, (3)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Using an Artificial Neural Network to Apply the Magnetospheric Disturbance Index to the MAVEN Mission Dataset (1165559)
Jacob Gruesbeck, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Jared R Espley, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States and Stephanie K Howard, University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States
Uncertainty Estimates of Solar Wind Prediction: Significance and Impacts (Invited) (1172648)
Bala Poduval, University of New Hampshire, Durham, United States, Gordon J D Petrie, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, United States and Luca Bertello, National Solar Observatory, Boulder, United States
A New Uncertainty in Space Weather Predictions: Magnetospheric Response to IMF By (1173994)
Lauri Holappa1, Jone Peter Reistad2, Anders Ohma2 and Timo Asikainen3, (1)University of Oulu, Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit, Oulu, Finland, (2)University of Bergen, Department of Physics and Technology, Birkeland Centre for Space Science, Bergen, Norway, (3)University of Oulu, ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Space Climate Research Unit, Oulu, Finland
Autocorrelation Study of Solar Wind Plasma and IMF Properties as Measured by the MAVEN Spacecraft (1192346)
Melissa Marquette, UC Berkeley/Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, Robert J Lillis, Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, Jasper S Halekas, University of Iowa, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Iowa City, IA, United States, Janet G Luhmann, University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Jacob Gruesbeck, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States and Jared R Espley, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
Fine Structure of Geoeffective Solar Wind Transients Complicating Space Weather Predictions (1046970)
Matti Mikael Ala-Lahti1, Andrew P Dimmock2, Tuija I Pulkkinen1, Simon Good3, Emiliya Yordanova2, Lucile Turc3 and K Emilia J Kilpua3, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden, (3)University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland
