SA008
Data-driven Modeling and New Measurements of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (MIT) System

Session ID#: 162872

Session Description:
A recent moderate geomagnetic storm on February 3-4, 2022, has caused the loss of about 40 out of 49 SpaceX Starlink low-orbit satellites, highlighting the importance of advancing the predictive capability of Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Thermosphere (MIT) system especially under disturbed conditions. The availability of long-term Heliophysics System Observatory datasets and rapidly growing data science techniques has enabled researchers to develop various data-driven modeling approaches that utilize data-assimilation and machine learning techniques. The ongoing challenge is to enhance the data set with new measurements, especially in the thermosphere, and model temperatures, winds, and densities in the thermosphere on a global scale. We must look for new ways to use existing data and/or identify new observations for this purpose. We solicit papers on new measurements, and new applications of data-driven modeling approaches to address MIT-coupling science questions, including papers that demonstrate how data assimilation and machine learning techniques can be used to deepen our understanding of MIT-coupling and enable a better storm-time prediction. Papers that focus on forecasting of the solar wind and magnetospheric conditions that lead to the improved thermosphere and ionosphere’s space weather effects, such as satellite drag and geomagnetically-induced currents, are also solicited.
Index Terms:

0355 Thermosphere: composition and chemistry [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
2431 Ionosphere/magnetosphere interactions [IONOSPHERE]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]


Primary Convener:  Sai Gowtam Valluri, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Conveners:  John Noto, Scientific Solutions Inc, North Chelmsford, MA, United States, Tomoko Matsuo, University of Colorado Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States and Robert K Schaefer, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Clayton Cantrall, University of Colorado Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Thermosphere-ionosphere conditions during the moderate geomagnetic storm of 3-4 February 2022 that led to the loss of 40 Starlink satellites (Invited) (1045968)
Elvira Astafyeva1, Jianhui He2, Xinan Yue3, Eelco Doornbos4, Nicholas M Pedatella5, Boris Maletckii1, Frederic Pitout6, Tomoko Matsuo7, Christian Siemes8, Sean Bruinsma9, Mihail Codrescu10, Mariangel Fedrizzi11, Timothy J Fuller-Rowell12 and Tzu-Wei Fang13, (1)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France, (2)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Université de Paris, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Paris, France, (3)Salta, Capital, Argentina, (4)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Utrecht, Netherlands, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Toulouse University, Toulouse, France, (7)University of Colorado Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States, (8)Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, (9)CNES, Toulouse, France, (10)SWPC/NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (11)NOAA/SWPC - University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (12)Univ of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (13)NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States
 
Neutral densities from Two Line Elements: An operational tool for LEO density derivation. (1061358)
Matthew Brown1, Sean Elvidge2 and David Themens1, (1)University of Birmingham, SERENE, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (2)University of Birmingham, SERENE, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom
 
A-CHAIM: Using a Particle Filter for Near-Real-Time Ionospheric Modelling (1063372)
Benjamin Reid1, David Themens2 and Anthony Mark McCaffrey1, (1)University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada, (2)University of Birmingham, SERENE, Birmingham, United Kingdom
 
Bias correction of O/N2 observations to support investigations into the role of preconditioning on the ionosphere-thermosphere storm-time response (1087653)
Clayton Cantrall1, Larry J Paxton2, Yongliang Zhang1, Robert K Schaefer1, Richard Eastes3, William E McClintock4, Scott England5, Jerry D Lumpe6 and Katelynn Greer7, (1)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (2)The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (4)University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Aerospace and Ocean Engineering, Blacksburg, VA, United States, (6)Computational Physics, Inc., Boulder, CO, United States, (7)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States
 
Ionospheric Correlations and Their Importance for the Ionospheric Data Assimilation (1092002)
Victoriya Forsythe, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Space Science, Washington, United States
 
Neutral Atmosphere Data Assimilation to Investigate Storm-Time Ionospheric Driving in WAM-IPE (1095968)
Alex Medema, University of Colorado Boulder, Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States, Eric K Sutton, University of Colorado at Boulder, Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States, Jeffrey P Thayer, University of Colorado at Boulder, Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States and Tzu-Wei Fang, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States
 
Thermospheric Density Estimation from Accelerometer Data of Geodetic Satellites – Evaluation of Sensitivity towards Non-Gravitational Force Modeling, POD calibration, and Comparison of Results (1112914)
Benny Rievers and Florian Wöske, University of Bremen, Center of Applied Space Technology and Microgravity (ZARM), Bremen, Germany
 
3UCubed Science: Using a CubeSat to Measure Suprathermal Electrons and UV Emissions to Study Thermospheric Upwelling during Solar Maximum (1125200)
Laura M Peticolas1, Marc Lessard2, Noé Lugaz3, Jenna Burgett4, Aaron Russell1, Sabrina Blais1, Trinity Sager5, Erika Diaz Ramirez1, Jeffrey Campbell4, Lindsay Marie Bartolone6, Sanjeev Mehta7, Marcus Alfred5, Lynn Cominsky8, Brian Silverman9, Garrett Jernigan10 and The 3UCubed Team, (1)Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, United States, (2)University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, (3)University of New Hampshire, Durham, United States, (4)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, United States, (5)Howard University, Washington, United States, (6)Astronomers Without Borders, Chicago, IL, United States, (7)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States, (8)Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA, United States, (9)Playful Invention Company, Montreal, Canada, (10)Little H-Bar Ranch, Petaluma, CA, United States
 
Mathematical Modeling of Thermospheric Mass Density Via Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (1131490)
Oladejo Charles Owolabi, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Hyunju KIM Connor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, Sai Gowtam Valluri, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States and Denny Oliveira, GSFC/UMBC, Greenbelt, United States
 
Monthly Variation of Thermospheric Neutral Winds (1169118)
Layne Pedersen, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States and Ludger Scherliess, Utah State University, Logan, United States
 
Constructing a Machine Learned Global Geomagnetic Field Prediction Model from Magnetic Local Time Dependent Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks (1172939)
Matthew Blandin1,2, Hyunju Connor3, Sai Gowtam Valluri4, Dogacan Su Ozturk2, Amy M Keesee5, Victor A Pinto6, Mdshaad Mahmud7 and Chigomezyo Ngwira8, (1)Geophysical Institute Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (4)Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (5)University of New Hampshire, Physics and Space Science Center, Durham, NH, United States, (6)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, Durham, United States, (7)University of New Hampshire, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Durham, United States, (8)ASTRA LLC, Science, Louisville, CO, United States
 
Thermospheric Condition During 3 to 4 February 2022 Geomagnetic Storm: The SpaceX Satellite Loss Event (1174818)
Fazlul I Laskar1, Eric K Sutton2, Dong Lin3, Katelynn Greer4, Saurav Aryal5, Xuguang Cai6, Nicholas M Pedatella7, Richard Eastes6, Wenbin Wang8, Mihail Codrescu9 and William E McClintock5, (1)LASP/University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, United States, (4)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (5)University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)University of Colorado at Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (7)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (9)SWPC/NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Specifying Neutral Density and Satellite Drag Through Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere Data Assimilation of Radio Occultation Electron Density Profiles (1179160)
Nicholas Dietrich, University of Colorado at Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States, Tomoko Matsuo, University of Colorado Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States and Chih-Ting Hsu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Orbital Propagation Improvement Using Updated Satellite Drag Coefficients and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) Neutral Atmosphere Specifications (1189935)
Soumyajit Dey, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, United States and Phillip Charles Anderson, University of Texas at Dallas, W. B. Hanson Center for Space Science, Richardson, TX, United States
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