2016 Ocean Sciences Meeting

February 21-26

Improvements in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts produced by coupled prediction models have lagged behind improvements in track forecasts. Accurate intensity prediction requires that coupled models correctly simulate the evolution of air-sea heat and momentum fluxes directly beneath storms. Limited evaluation performed to date demonstrates that existing coupled prediction models contain significant errors and biases in simulated air-sea fluxes, and in the responses of the upper-ocean and the atmospheric planetary boundary layer to these fluxes, that can degrade the quality of intensity forecasts. Papers are solicited that describe the supporting science and methods required to evaluate and improve the quality of coupled TC intensity forecasts, particularly with regards to improving the representation of key ocean-wave-atmosphere physical processes within the models. Particular emphasis is placed on physical processes acting within the under-sampled inner-core region of storms. Scientific topics of interest include air-sea interface dynamics, upper-ocean dynamics, atmospheric planetary boundary layer dynamics, air-sea flux parameterization improvements, and methods to improve model initialization. Papers describing the observational requirements to achieve these goals, with respect to both the optimal use of existing observations and the design of future observing programs, are particularly encouraged.

• OD - Ocean Observing and Data Management
• PO - Physical Oceanography/Ocean Circulation
• TE - Tropical and Equatorial Environments
• TP - Turbulent Processes