Ryan Holmes, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Jan D Zika, University of New South Wales, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Raffaele M Ferrari, MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States, Andrew F Thompson, California Institute of Technology, Physical Oceanography, Pasadena, CA, United States, Emily Rose Newsom, California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States and Matthew H England, Univ New South Wales, Sydney, Australia