HE009
Sea ice dynamics and predictability
Session ID#: 84695
Session Description:
The evolution of sea ice on seasonal, interannual and decadal timescales is vital to polar oceans and global climate. Bulk sea ice characteristics such as volume, concentration, thickness, floe-size distribution, albedo, melt-pond fraction, and fracture statistics, depend crucially on mechanical and thermodynamical sea ice response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. Sea-ice predictions are complicated by the lack of optimal models for its deformation and thermodynamics that are appropriate across scales ranging from centimeters to hundreds of kilometers. Further complications arise due to transitions between the continuous and discrete element (i.e., individual floes) nature of sea ice dynamics that occur, for example, in marginal ice zones. Recent rapid increases in both computational capabilities and availability of extensive high-resolution sea-ice observations provide opportunities for developing and testing new mathematical frameworks for sea ice modeling, data assimilation, and prediction. This session invites contributions involving analyses of both remote and in-situ data, as well as numerical and theoretical process modeling to constrain sea-ice growth/melt and mechanical deformation processes in order to improve future sea-ice predictions.
Index Terms:
1621 Cryospheric change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1640 Remote sensing [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4540 Ice mechanics and air/sea/ice exchange processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4572 Upper ocean and mixed layer processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Chair: Georgy Manucharyan, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States
Co-chairs: Mary-Louise Timmermans, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States and Dimitrios Giannakis, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NEW YORK, NY, United States
Primary Liaison: Mary-Louise Timmermans, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
A spring barrier for regional predictions of summer Arctic sea ice (637375)
David B Bonan1, Mitchell Bushuk2, Michael Winton2, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth3 and Andrew F Thompson4, (1)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)California Institute of Technology, Physical Oceanography, Pasadena, CA, United States
Parameter Optimization in a Sea Ice Model with Elasto-Visco-Plastic (EVP) Rheology (639397)
Gleb Panteleev, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space center, MS, United States, Max Yaremchuk, Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, Jacob Stroh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, Oceana Puananilei Francis, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, United States and Richard Arthur Allard, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
Recent behavior of the Nares Strait ice arches: anomalous collapses and enhanced transport of multi-year ice from the Arctic Ocean (640727)
Kent Moore1, Stephen Howell2, Michael Brady2, Kaitlin McNeil3 and Xiaoyong Xu3, (1)University of Toronto, Department of Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada, (3)University of Toronto, Chemical and Physical Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada
An Autumn Arctic Pacific Sea-ice Dipole as a Source of Predictability for Subsequent Spring Barents-Kara Sea-ice Condition (641478)
Yu-Chiao Liang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Claude Frankignoul, Sorbonnes Universités LOCEAN, Paris, France and Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Modeling Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover using FVCOM+ice+wave Model (641971)
Jia Wang1, Peng Bai2, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome3, James Kessler1 and Philip Chu1, (1)NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Constraining Wave Dissipation and Non-Linear Interactions in The Marginal Ice Zone (646448)
Dany Dumont1, Jeremy Baudry2, Peter Sutherland3 and Luc Barast3, (1)Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER), Rimouski, QC, Canada, (2)Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, Canada, (3)IFREMER, Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, IUEM, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Brest, France
Enhanced Arctic Sea-Ice Growth Driven by Atmospheric Warming; A Key Role for Snow (648152)
Arash Bigdeli1, An T Nguyen2, Helen Pillar3, Patrick Heimbach4 and Victor Ocaña3, (1)University of Texas at Austin, The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, Austin, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas at Austin, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, United States, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, Austin, United States, (4)University of Texas at Austin, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, Austin, TX, United States
Estimation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness using Passive Microwave (650369)
Daehyeon Han1, Youngjun Kim1, Jungho Im1, SeongMun SIM1, Eunna Jang1 and Hyun-cheol Kim2, (1)Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan, South Korea, (2)Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea
Observation and modeling of wave-ice interactions in the MIZ: the relative importance of turbulent processes compared to other attenuation mechanisms (651522)
Luc Barast1, Peter Sutherland1, Dany Dumont2 and Jeremy Baudry3, (1)IFREMER, Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, IUEM, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Brest, France, (2)Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER), Rimouski, QC, Canada, (3)Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, Canada
How changes in sea ice motion influence Antarctic sea ice extent (651846)
Till J.W. Wagner, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, United States, Hassan C Mason, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC, United States and Ian Eisenman, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Skillful seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice in a dynamical forecast system (Invited) (654383)
Mitchell Bushuk, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Michael Winton, NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, NJ, United States and Alexander Haumann, Princeton University, United States
Machine learning approaches for inferring large-scale sea ice rheology from Lagrangian and Eulerian data (655797)
Dimitrios Giannakis1, Georgy Manucharyan2, Joanna Slawinska3 and Suddhasattwa Das1, (1)New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, United States, (2)United States, (3)University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Department of Physics, Milwaukee, WI, United States
Interaction Between Antarctic Circumpolar Current Eddies and the Sea Ice Edge: Influence on Sea Ice Extent (656757)
Scott R Springer, Earth & Space Research, Seattle, WA, United States, Michael S Dinniman, Old Dominion University, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA, United States and Laurence Padman, Earth & Space Research, Corvallis, OR, United States
