CC020
Prediction of the Ocean: Physics, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems, and Applications

Session ID#: 259658

Session Description:
Predicting oceanic variations is vital for understanding climate dynamics, managing marine resources, and addressing changes in ocean ecosystems. Advances in data assimilation and initialized Earth system predictions - on subseasonal to decadal timescales - have opened new opportunities for exploring the predictability and constraining future projections of ocean physical and biogeochemical processes. These advancements, alongside emerging applications of machine learning and explainable statistical approaches, provide powerful tools for skillful predictions. In this session, we welcome presentations that highlight recent advances in predicting ocean physical, biogeochemical, and/or ecological processes and extremes, as well as studies that improve our understanding of the drivers of variability and sources of predictability. Research that leverages novel statistical, dynamical, and/or hybrid approaches, involving Earth system models and/or data-driven frameworks, to make ocean predictions on any spatial scale is especially encouraged. Additionally, we seek work that demonstrates the value of ocean predictions in support of marine resource management, including co-designed forecast systems, regional applications, and end-user engagement. Submissions highlighting interdisciplinary efforts to connect ocean physical, biogeochemical, and ecological predictions and projections with climate variability and extremes are especially welcome.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • Climate and Ocean Change -
  • Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry -
  • Physical-Biological Interactions -
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1635 Oceans [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4273 Physical and biogeochemical interactions [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Student/Early Career Chair:  Samuel Mogen, University of Colorado, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Primary Chair:  Dr. Hongmei Li, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
Co-chairs:  Dillon J Amaya, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Filippa Fransner, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway and Ronan McAdam, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
 
Soil Organic Carbon Stock in the Mangrove and Salt Marsh Ecosystems along the Cox's Bazar Coast, Bangladesh (1859648)
Mohammad Motahar Hossain, University of Chittagong, Institute of Marine Sciences, Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh and Sheikh Aftab Uddin, University of Chittagong, Institute of Marine Sciences, Chittagong, Bangladesh
 
An application of Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation in El Niño–Southern Oscillation Prediction (1863415)
Yanqiu Gao, Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Hangzhou, CHINA
 
Predicting CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth with multiple Earth system models (1865681)
Dr. Hongmei Li1,2, Tatiana Ilyina1,2,3, Sebastian Brune4, István Dunkl2,5, Wolfgang A. Müller2, Raffaele Bernardello6, Laurent Bopp7, Ingo Bethke8,9, Filippa Fransner9,10, Pierre Friedlingstein11, Vladimir Lapin6, William J Merryfield12, Juliette Mignot13, Michael O'Sullivan11, Didier Swingedouw14, Hiroaki Tatebe15, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso12, Jerry Tjiputra8,9, Olivier Torres16 and Etienne Tourigny6, (1)Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany, (2)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Universität Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg, Germany, (5)Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany, (6)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, (7)LMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure/Université PSL, CNRS, Département de Géosciences, Paris, France, (8)Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (9)Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (10)University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (11)University of Exeter, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, Exeter, United Kingdom, (12)Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada, (13)LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS-IRD-MNHN-Sorbonne Université, Paris, France, (14)University Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, Pessac, France, (15)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (16)Ecole normale supérieure, Département de Géosciences, Paris, France
 
Impact of the assimilation of SWOT Wide-Swath data on the Copernicus IBI Wave Multiyear product (2005484)
Breogan Gomez1, Aouf Lotfi2, Wagner Luiz Langer-Costa3, Stefania Ciliberti1, Axel Alonso-Valle1, Roland Aznar1, Manuel Garcia-Leon1, Lluís Castrillo1, José María García-Valdecasas1 and Marcos Sotillo1, (1)Nologin Oceanic Weather Systems, Santiago de Compostela, Spain, (2)Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, (3)Meteo-France, Marine Forecasting R&D, Toulouse, France
 
Impact of Improved Sea Ice Conditions on Bering Sea Ocean Process Predictions from a Regional Coupled Ocean-Ice-Biogeochemistry Model (2005838)
Dmitry S Dukhovskoy1, Katherine Hedstrom2, Theresa Morrison3, Michael A Alexander4, Natalie M Freeman4, Michael Jacox5 and Jessie Liu4, (1)NOAA NWS, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, (2)Arctic Rgn Supercomputing Ctr, Fairbanks, United States, (3)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (4)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Science Division, Monterey, United States
 
Improving the Prediction of Ocean Ecosystem Indicators by Assimilation of Satellite Observations Into a Regional Ocean-Biogeochemical Model (2008221)
Lars Nerger1, Yuchen Sun2, Sophie Vliegen2 and Anju Sathyanarayanan3, (1)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Bremerhaven, Germany, (2)Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany, (3)Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
 
Improving Seasonal Predictions of North Sea Storm Surges: A Collaborative, Process-Informed Modelling Framework (2008753)
Anna K. Miesner, University of Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany, Daniel Krieger, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Department Climate Variability, Hamburg, Germany and Leonard Borchert, University of Hamburg, Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Hamburg, Germany
 
Skillful high-resolution seasonal forecasts of the California Current System using model-analogs (2009209)
Dillon J Amaya1, Michael Jacox1,2 and Michael A Alexander1, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Science Division, Monterey, United States
 
Potential predictability of pelagic and demersal fish driven by bottom-up drivers of a decadal prediction system (2010684)
Hyung-Gyu Lim1, Colleen Petrik2, Kristen M. Krumhardt3, Zhuomin Chen4, Matthew Long4,5, Charles A Stock6, Samantha Siedlecki7, Jong-Yeon Park8 and Eun-Young Kim9, (1)KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Integrative Oceanography Division, La Jolla, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, United States, (4)University of Connecticut, Groton, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (6)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (7)University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States, (8)Jeonbuk National University, Department of Environment and Energy, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Jeonju, South Korea, (9)Jeonbuk National University, Department of Environment and Energy, Jeonju, South Korea
 
Developing a Statistical Hierarchical Model for Dumping Hotspots in the Baltic Sea Region (2011410)
Mr. Jaromir Jakacki, PhD1, Jacek Bełdowski2, Christian Frølund Damgaard3, Patrik Fauser4, Lærke Ina Krogaard Hansen4, Peter Borgen Sørensen3 and Hans Sanderson4, (1)Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Physical Oceanography Department, Sopot, Poland, (2)Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Marine Chemistry and Biochemistry Department, Sopot, Poland, (3)Aarhus University, Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus C, Denmark, (4)Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus C, Denmark
 
Predicting Thermocline Depth in the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge Using XGBoost (2013310)
Jieun Shin1, Hajoon Song1, MinHo Kwon2 and Sung-Hun Kim2, (1)Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (2)KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea
 
Sensitivity of the California Current System to Remote vs. Local Forcing in a Regional Ocean Model for the Northeast Pacific (2015639)
Jessie Liu1, Dmitry S Dukhovskoy2, Michael Jacox1,3 and Michael A Alexander1, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA NWS, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, (3)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Science Division, Monterey, United States
 
ENSO predictability over the past 137 years based on a CESM ensemble prediction system (2018204)
Ting Liu, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China, Hangzhou, China
 
Global ocean biogeochemical predictions using NOAA GFDL’s SPEAR ensemble (2019833)
Xiao Liu1, John P Dunne1, Feiyu Lu2, Charles A Stock1, Anthony John Rosati2, Matt Harrison2 and Andrew C Ross3, (1)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (2)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (3)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
 
Advancing marine ecosystem modeling for a changing ocean: enhancing EcoOcean (v3) for integrated social-ecological assessments (2021774)
Marta Coll1, Jeroen Steenbeek2, Alba Fuster-Alonso3, Jorge Mestre-Tomás3, Miquel Ortega-Cerdà3, Francisco Ramírez3, Jose Maria Bellido4 and Villy Christensen5, (1)Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain, (2)Ecopath inc., Barcelona, Spain, (3)Institut of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain, (4)Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC), Murcia, Spain, (5)Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
 
ENSO Predictability Due to Combined Wyrtki and Hasselmann Memory in a Cyclostationary Linear Inverse Model (2021778)
Yuxin Wang, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Honolulu, United States, Matthew J Widlansky, University of Hawaii at Manoa, CIMAR, Honolulu, HI, United States, Malte F Stuecker, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, Sen Zhao, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States and Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States
 
Understanding Drivers of AMOC Drift in Initialised Decadal Predictions (2025339)
Niamh O'Callaghan, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Jon Robson, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Leon Hermanson, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, Keith Haines, Reading University, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom and Laura C Jackson, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
Advances in the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting Physical System within the Copernicus Marine Service (2033990)
Emanuela Clementi1, Francesco Maicu1, Ali Aydogdu1, Massimiliano Drudi1, Rita Lecci2, Mario Adani1, Sergio Cretì2, Anna Chiara Goglio1, Rafael Menezes2, Alessandro Grandi1, Lucia Gualtieri1, Antonio Mariani2, Bethany McDonagh1, Pietro Miraglio1, Aimie Moulin1, Paolo Oddo3, Francesco Palermo2, Jenny Pistoia1, Ehsan Sadighrad1, Vladyslav Lyubartsev1 and Nadia Pinardi3, (1)CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy, (2)CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, Italy, (3)University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bologna, Italy
 
Improving Interannual-to-Decadal Predictions of Ocean Primary Production (2034593)
Filippa Fransner, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
 
Improving biogeochemical predictions by including coupled physical-biogeochemical assimilation (2038128)
Anna Teruzzi1, Simone Spada1, Ali Aydogdu2, Carolina Amadio3 and Gianpiero Cossarini3, (1)National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics OGS, Trieste, Italy, (2)Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy, (3)National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Trieste, Italy
 
Where Will Coral Reefs Survive? Quantitative Tools to Direct Conservation Priorities (2038433)
Mr. Orlando Timmerman and Oscar Branson Dr, University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom
 
Identifying Coastal Thermal Microclimates and Climate Refugia Using High-Resolution Temperature Data (2038615)
Prof. Christian Pansch1, Giannina Hattich2, Sarah Rühmkorff2 and Lucinda Kraufvelin3, (1)Åbo Akademi University, Environmental and Marine Biology, Faculty of Science and Engeneering, Turku, Finland, (2)Åbo Akademi University, Environmental and Marine biology, Turku, Finland, (3)Åbo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
 
Coupled development of systematic tropical ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors (2039564)
Jonathan Beverley, CIRES/CU Boulder and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, Matthew Newman, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States
 
Seasonal Forecasts of pH and Aragonite Saturation for the Bering Sea Shelf (2040901)
Darren Pilcher1, Kelly Kearney2, Albert J Hermann3, Wei Cheng1, Dr. Jessica N Cross, PhD4 and Natalie Marie Monacci5, (1)University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States, (2)Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, United States, (3)University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), Seattle, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (5)University of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Fairbanks, United States
 
High-resolution seasonal forecasts of California Current System physics and biogeochemistry using MOM6-COBALT (2040991)
Michael Jacox1, Dmitry S Dukhovskoy2, Michael A Alexander3, Jessie Liu3, Elizabeth Drenkard4, Charles A Stock5 and Andrew Ross6, (1)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Science Division, Monterey, United States, (2)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States, (5)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (6)Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology, University Park, United States
 
Predictability of ocean eddies and precipitation: high-resolution prediction experiments. (2041737)
Justin Small1, Stephen G Yeager2, Frederic S Castruccio2, Gokhan Danabasoglu3, Ping Chang4, Ian Grooms5, Niklas Schneider6, Lucas Laurindo7 and Rhys Parfitt8, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, United States, (4)Texas A&M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, United States, (5)University of Colorado at Boulder, Applied Mathematics, Boulder, United States, (6)Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States, (7)University of Miami, Miami, United States, (8)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
 
Adjustment of decadal carbon sink predictions using deep learning (2042232)
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada, Parsa Gooya, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada and Johannes Exenberger, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
 
Improving ocean temperature predictions with explainable, data-driven post-processing (2043767)
Daniel E Amrhein, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
ENSO IMPACTS ON MARINE ECOSYSTEMS AND FISHERIES IN THE TROPICAL AND SOUTH ATLANTIC (2043837)
Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Complutense University of Madrid, Facultad de Fisicas, Madrid, Spain
 
AMOC and subpolar North Atlantic Ocean predictability in CMIP6 decadal prediction simulations (2048136)
Dr. Dylan Oldenburg, PhD1, Stephen G Yeager2, Gokhan Danabasoglu3, Who M Kim2 and Isla Simpson4, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
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