US–Iran Relations since 1979: Beyond the Shadow of Mistrust

This presentation traces the broad trajectory of US-Iran relations since the 1979 Revolution, briefly reexamining its controversial points from today’s vantage point and in light of source material recently made available in Iran and declassified CIA and government archives. The presentation builds on and carries forward the findings of my 2022 book on US-Iran relations. Though approaching the subject mainly from a political science perspective, I ground my analysis in a proper historical frame, connecting it to the arguments of historians participating in this session. After a short critical reappraisal of American policy toward the Shah’s regime during the 1950-1970s, I revisit the Carter administration’s role in the Iranian Revolution; the 1979-1981 Hostage Crisis; the Iran-Iraq war; Tehran’s relative détente with Washington in 1990s; their worsening relations in early twenty-first century; the US sanctions regime imposed in response to Iran’s nuclear program; President Barack Obama’s "nuclear deal" with Iran; and, finally, the current impasse between the two governments. I will identify and analyze contradictory factors shaping foreign policy on both sides, such as Tehran’s security concerns and regional ambitions, the Israel-Saudi lobby in Washington, the Democratic-Republican change of US administrations, and political unrest in Iran. As other presentations in this session demonstrate, Iran and the US have a relatively long and quite complex history, including constructive people-to-people interactions, relatively independent from the political frames imposed by governments. Thus, many observers on both sides recognize patterns of mutual interests that could eventually bring the two countries closer, if political tensions between governments subsided. This presentation, however, concludes that although an eventual rapprochement is not impossible, the current situation, particularly the Islamic Republic’s instability in the face of growing popular opposition and Washington’s volatile foreign policy course, indicates that the time for a constructive diplomatic breakthrough has yet to arrive.