Development of Algorithms for Predicting Ignition Probabilities and Explosion Frequencies

Abstract: A project was performed for the Explosion Research Cooperative to develop algorithms for predicting the frequencies of explosions based on a variety of design, operating and environmental conditions. This project developed algorithms for estimating unit-based explosion frequencies, such as those reported in API Recommended Practice 752, but more detailed and covering a much broader range of chemical process types. The project also developed methods for predicting scenario-based explosion frequencies, based on the frequencies of initiating events and conditional probabilities of immediate ignition and delayed ignition resulting in explosion. The algorithms were based on both published data and expert opinion, both of which are described.