PREPARATION FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN MEDITERRANEAN VIA VEGETATION GROWTH IN TUNISIA

Introduction: As global warming is being recognized by the scientific community as approaching potentially catastrophic effects, action is to be taken to curb disaster before it is too late. Long term satellite observations on Tunisia have provided an opportunity to study the vegetative and climatic effects of global warming in Tunisia, useful as a form of insight into the future ramifications on the vegetation of the entire southern Mediterranean region.

Methods: Tunisia has minimal information on its change of climate, and no formal research into its effects. Over the past 12 months, 10 years of satellite observation were examined to display the current effects of the global shift on Tunisia. Two characteristics were considered; vegetation growth and temperature. Both of which had be gathered through remote sensing and analyzed in ENVI (Environment for Visualizing Information). MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) was used to gather images of the Tunis region over the past 10 years during the wet season, which persists from November to April. Along with image algebra, MODIS’ satellite “Terra” was used to allow for the extraction of vegetation images through the Enhanced Vegetation Index. EVI is similar to the traditional way of processing vegetation through NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) but it also allows the void of reflecting and scattered pigments in the atmosphere that would throw it off inaccurately. Temperature can also be extracted and converted to more user friendly data via the Temperature Condition Index.

Results: While vegetation decreased over the decade of study, temperature consistently increased. Together, the two were used to find the Vegetation Health Index for the study period, between the years 2002-2013. As the project is only partially completed, and accurate correlations can only loosely be drawn, what has been collected has not been indexed well enough to establish credibility

Conclusion: Quantitative data can be pooled and analyzed, and used to predict future behavior resulting from these observed environmental shifts. Determined by the graph drawn and correlated, it seems to be that vegetation will continue to decrease exponentially, although temperature will increase gradually.