Crops and systems for Emergent Climates in West Africa

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2020, yields in some African countries from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. For West Africa, general circulation models project temperatures near the end of the 21st century to rise to 3-6°C above 20th century baselines under some scenarios. More drought and heavy rains are projected; less confidence is expressed for rainfall totals. West Africa is already one of the warmest tropical climates, and known for high rainfall variability. Indigenous crops are well adapted to heat and rainfall variability, but there has been little to no gain in productivity, despite availability of improved genotypes, since the 1970’s. Poor productivity gains are largely due to low input use, especially that of fertilizer. The most recent IPCC publication only mentions fertilizer twice. IPCC cites integrating trees into cropping systems as an African Success Story, even though this has been a traditional farming system for centuries. It cites conservation agriculture as having good potential to raise productivity and respond to climate risk, despite very mixed research results. Some megatrends, such as urbanization, are mentioned. But others, such as diet change, are not. Consumers increasingly prefer imported or introduced cereals, including wheat, rice and maize. Much more investment has been made into genetic improvement of these crops, and they respond greater to management. Genetic improvement alone is unlikely to improve food security or productivity. Sustained support and empowerment of national agricultural systems is a critical yet often neglected component.