Strategies for Increasing Resilience to Climate Change and Variability in Southern African Agriculture

Strategies for increasing resilience to climate change and variability in Southern African agriculture.

SR Moephuli and DJ Rees

Agricultural Research Council, PO Box 8783, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

Climate change has been predicted and demonstrated to adversely impact on agriculture production. Other influences to changes in decadal scale climate patterns appear to be influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole. For resilience to adverse impacts of climate change the Agriculture Research Council (ARC) has been conducting climate modelling studies for the assessment of future temperature and rainfall patterns. To develop suitable varieties and production strategies for crops the ARC is involved in a number of programs, including breeding and genetic studies of chilling requirement in apples, the development of water and nitrogen efficient varieties of maize, wheat, cowpea, and the incorporation of new drought tolerant crops such as sweet-potato, cowpea, amaranth and sorghum into conservation agriculture systems. The development of stress tolerant cultivars and crop suitability modelling studies in parallel with the relocation of production areas will become key to food security in the future. Studies on crop and livestock diseases, pests and parasites indicate spatial – temporal shifts and genetic variation in pathogens that could be critical for future disease management strategies. Overall, the integration of climate models and soil data, with increased understanding of the impact of biotic and abiotic stress on crop and livestock production, is essential to the future development of sustainable agriculture in Southern Africa.