Perceived Societal Safety and Fertility Intentions Among Marriage-Age Young Adults In Seoul: The Mediating Roles of Marital Intentions and Gender Differences

Background. Ultra-low fertility in South Korea has persisted despite extensive policy efforts and a large body of research focusing on demographic and socioeconomic determinants of childbearing. However, these approaches have had limited success in explaining or reversing the sustained fertility decline. This has led us to focus on emerging societal safety concerns and how young adults perceive the safety and reliability of the broader social environment when forming life-course decisions. Guided by a cognitive–social model of fertility intentions, this study extends existing fertility research by examining how young adults’ perceptions of societal safety relate to childbirth intentions among marriage-age young adults in Seoul, and whether this relationship differs by gender and marriage intentions.

Method. We used pooled panel data from the 2021 and 2022 Seoul Young Adult Panel Study (SYPS), restricting analyses to unmarried and childless adults ages 28–34 (2,968 observations from 2,037 individuals). Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with a logit link and robust standard errors were estimated to account for intra-individual correlation and to produce population-averaged effects. Childbirth intention was coded as a binary outcome. Perceived societal safety was measured on a 0–10 scale. Marriage intention (yes/uncertain/no) and gender were modeled as moderators via a three-way interaction, adjusting for age, education, logged income, parents’ income, and employment type.

Result. Societal safety perceptions were not significantly associated with childbirth intentions as a main effect (OR = 1.07, p = .443). However, moderation analyses revealed a significant gendered and marriage-contingent pattern. A three-way interaction among gender, marriage intention, and societal safety was statistically significant, particularly for Women × Marriage intention “uncertain” × Safety (OR = 1.47, p = .016), with a marginally significant effect for Women × Marriage intention “yes” × Safety (OR = 1.36, p = .060). Marginal effects analyses further showed that higher societal safety perceptions were associated with increased probabilities of intending childbirth among women who intended to marry (dy/dx = .012, p < .01) and those uncertain about marriage (dy/dx = .013, p < .01). In contrast, societal safety perceptions were not significantly related to childbirth intentions among men across marriage intention groups.

Discussion. Results suggest that fertility intentions may be shaped by gendered assessments of societal safety, beyond traditional economic or demographic determinants. These findings highlight the need to reconsider ultra-low fertility in South Korea as a distinct regional variant of the Second Demographic Transition, where structural and cultural conditions may alter how young adults interpret the risks and responsibilities of childbearing. By incorporating cognitive–social evaluations of the social environment into fertility research, this study contributes theoretically to expanding demographic explanations of fertility intentions. For social work policy and practice, interventions that reduce structural insecurity and strengthen perceived societal safety may be particularly relevant for women navigating decisions about marriage and childbearing.