Classifying Neighborhood Upgrading across Urban and Rural Contexts

Background and Purpose

There is limited attention to how economically disadvantaged neighborhoods differ in the ways they experience upward transition. To address this gap, this study focuses on neighborhoods that improved economically between 2010 and 2019 and examines how demographic, socioeconomic, and mobility changes co-occur. The objective was to identify distinct profiles of neighborhood upgrading and to provide a national typology of multidimensional change across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan contexts.

Methods

This study used a two-stage design to identify and classify neighborhoods that underwent upward economic transition between 2010 and 2019. Tract-level 5-year American Community Survey estimates were used (N = 73,027 census tracts), with census tracts serving as proxies for neighborhoods. Neighborhoods were first identified as economically disadvantaged in 2010 (bottom three quintiles within county on the proportion of residents above 200% of the federal poverty level) and then classified as experiencing upward transition if they increased by at least two quintiles on this same measure by 2019. This county-relative approach isolates neighborhood-level change from broader regional trends.

Repeated-measures latent profile analyses (RMLPAs) were used to identify subgroups of neighborhoods exhibiting similar patterns of change across poverty, educational attainment, racial and ethnic composition, and residential mobility. Separate models were estimated for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan tracts to account for structural differences across contexts. Multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVAs) were conducted to assess differences across profiles on additional neighborhood characteristics.

Results

Nine distinct profiles of neighborhood upgrading were identified across metropolitan (five profiles; n = 2,636) and nonmetropolitan (four profiles; n = 1,334) contexts. Profiles differed in both the magnitude of economic improvement and the ways in which improvement was accompanied by demographic and population change.

In metropolitan areas, upgrading was often associated with substantial demographic restructuring. Several profiles combined large reductions in poverty with declines in Black or Hispanic populations, while others reflected population growth, increasing educational attainment, and rising affluence.

In nonmetropolitan areas, upgrading was more gradual and heterogeneous. Some profiles showed modest economic gains with relatively stable racial composition, while others combined population decline with increases in educational attainment or shifts in racial composition. These patterns suggest that upward transition outside metropolitan areas is less tied to rapid demographic turnover and more to incremental change.

MANOVA results indicated significant differences across profiles in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan models (p < .001 across tests). Variation was most pronounced for income and homeownership, indicating that the identified profiles represent substantively distinct socioeconomic configurations rather than minor variation.

Conclusions and Implications

Neighborhood upgrading follows multiple distinct patterns rather than a single pathway. This typology provides a more precise framework for identifying how change unfolds across disadvantaged areas undergoing upward transition. By distinguishing between forms of upgrading, it enables more targeted, place-based interventions and improves the ability of researchers and practitioners to detect where economic gains may coincide with uneven or exclusionary outcomes.