Policy Capital, Housing Crisis: Homelessness and Racial Inequality In Central-West Brazil

Background and Purpose.The Central-West region of Brazil occupies an unusual position in the national landscape of homelessness. It is home to Brasília, the federal capital where social protection policies are designed and coordinated. Yet the Federal District (DF) concentrates the largest number of people experiencing homelessness (PEH) in the region, accounting for 42% of all registered cases. This proximity between policy-making and extreme vulnerability is the central tension this study examines. Drawing on administrative and census data, we analyze the demographic profile of PEH across Goiás (GO), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), and the DF, with attention to racial composition, gender patterns, and access to the Bolsa Família Program (PBF).

Methods.We analyzed secondary data from the Observatório do CadÚnico (December 2025), extracted and compiled by the Center for Public Policy Analysis and Evaluation (NAAPP). The Central-West presents a heterogeneous analytical context: the DF is a federal territory under direct federal administration with no municipal structure; GO and MT have demographic profiles typical of the Brazilian interior; and MS, with a substantial indigenous population, introduces complexity not captured by the Black and Brown classification used in CadÚnico. Descriptive statistics examined homelessness distribution, gender composition, racial distribution, and PBF coverage across these four units. Data from the 2022 Brazilian Demographic Census provided benchmarks for assessing racial overrepresentation.

Results.Administrative records indicate approximately 20,884 PEH across the region. The DF alone accounts for 8,863 cases, followed by GO (5,539), MT (3,915), and MS (2,567). The DF represents 42% of regional cases despite being the smallest territorial unit.

Racial concentration is pronounced across three states. Black and Brown individuals represent 82.8% of PEH in MT, 82.4% in the DF, and 81.9% in GO. MS diverges at 72.4%, likely reflecting its substantial indigenous population, recorded separately in administrative data and outside the Black and Brown classification. This divergence points to a limitation of the classification system rather than lesser racial inequality. Gender patterns are consistent across the region, with men comprising more than 80% of registered PEH in all four states.

Conclusions and Implications.DF makes visible what administrative data alone cannot explain: robust policy infrastructure does not guarantee equitable access for those most in need. For PEH in Brasília, living in the shadow of the institutions designed to protect them has not closed the gap between registration and effective coverage.

The racial findings reinforce this point. More than 80% of registered PEH across three states are Black or Brown, reflecting accumulated structural disadvantage rather than individual circumstance. The divergence in MS points to a broader limitation: administrative systems built on simplified racial categories may obscure the vulnerability of populations that do not fit within them.

These findings raise a question that extends beyond the Central-West: if the region that houses the federal government cannot ensure equitable protection for its most vulnerable residents, what does that reveal about institutional proximity and policy effectiveness? Race-conscious outreach, revised classification systems, and stronger coordination between federal and local social assistance are not technical fixes but political choices.