Winter Snowstorm Severity and Mental Health In Texas: The Role of Protective Factors

Background and Purpose

The winter storms Uri and Viola resulted in at least 246 fatalities, both direct and indirect, with total economic losses projected to exceed $195 billion (Zhou et al., 2024). Approximately 40% of the population experienced prolonged power outages, some lasting up to two weeks (Allen-Dumas et al., 2022). Although restoration of physical infrastructure took several years (Veettil et al., 2022), concerns remain regarding the long-term psychological impacts on affected residents (Grineski et al., 2022). However, optimism has been identified as a protective factor following natural disasters, associated with better mental health outcomes among survivors (Gero et al., 2021). This study examined the association between 2021 winter snowstorm severity and mental health in Texas, with particular attention to the mediating roles of concern about future weather and optimism.

Methods

Data was collected in June 2025 via an online survey following electronic consent. Survey items were based on questionnaires developed by the author. The sample included 410 adults aged 20 and older (range: 20 - 68) who lived in Texas during the 2021 winter storm and at the time of the survey. The independent variable, severity of the 2021 snowstorms, was measured using a single item from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree), Intervening variables included concern about future weather, measured using one item (1-5 scale), and optimism, measured using seven items from the Disaster Adaptation and Resilience Scale (First et al., 2021) (α = .887). Anxiety, the dependent variable, was assessed using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) (Spitzer et al., 2006) (α =.894). Covariates included gender, education, age, and income. Missing data were addressed using maximum likelihood estimation in SPSS 30 (Enders, 2022). Serial mediation analysis was conducted using the PROCESS macro, and indirect effects were tested using bootstrapping (5,000 samples) with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Severity of the 2021 winter storm in Texas was positively associated with concern about future winter weather (b = .5263, p < .001). Concern about future winter weather was positively associated with anxiety (b = .4559, p < .05). Optimism was negatively associated with anxiety (b = -.1975, p < .001), controlling for storm severity and concern about future weather. Significant indirect effects were observed. Storm severity was indirectly associated with anxiety through concern about future winter weather (b = .2400, CI [.0173, .4616]) and through optimism (b = -.2970, CI [-.4620, -.1508]). Additionally, storm severity was associated with anxiety through a serial mediation pathway involving concern about future winter weather and optimism (b= -.1279, CI [-.2139, -.0559]).

Conclusions and Implications

Severe 2021 Texas winter storms were indirectly associated with higher anxiety through increased concern about future weather, while optimism served as a protective factor that reduced anxiety and buffered stress effects. These findings highlight the importance of addressing anticipatory stress and strengthening resilience to improve post-disaster mental health outcomes.