The Impact of Marijuana Legalization and Recurrent Contact with Child Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Using Linked Administrative Data

Background and Purpose

Recent studies suggest that marijuana legalization is associated with changes in child maltreatment reporting and foster care entry. However, prior research relies primarily on state-level aggregate data and cannot distinguish whether these changes reflect shifts in maltreatment incidence or differences in patterns of subsequent CPS involvement following an initial report. This study examines how marijuana legalization is associated with recurrent contact with child protective services (CPS) following an initial report. Specifically, we assess whether legalization is associated with the likelihood of subsequent CPS involvement over time and whether these associations vary by state policy environments, including maltreatment definitions and response systems.

Methods

Analyses draw on linked administrative data from the Report and Placement Integrated Data System (RAPIDS), integrating child-level records from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS). The sample includes children with first CPS contact beginning in 2011, followed through 2023 across 31 states with available policy data. Marijuana legalization policies were compiled from publicly available state-level sources and policy tracking databases, including Wikipedia, and linked by state and year. State-level policy characteristics were drawn from the State Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN) database, including substance-related maltreatment definitions and alternative response systems. Covariates include child demographics, prior CPS history, and state-level socioeconomic characteristics. We estimate the hazard of recurrent CPS involvement using flexible parametric survival models with time-varying covariates.

Results

In analyses including additional comparison states and a longer follow-up period, marijuana legalization was associated with a modest increase in the hazard of recurrent CPS involvement (HR = 1.23), although this association was not statistically significant. Instead, variation in outcomes appears to be largely driven by individual- and case-level characteristics. Older children had a lower hazard of recurrent CPS involvement (HR = 0.98, p < .001), and Hispanic children had a lower hazard compared to White children (HR = 0.85, p < .01). Physical abuse (HR = 0.90, p < .001) and sexual abuse (HR = 0.76, p < .01) were associated with a lower hazard of recurrent CPS involvement over time. Female children had a slightly higher hazard (HR = 1.03, p < .001). Higher median income was associated with a modest reduction in hazard (HR = 0.996, p < .01), while policy characteristics were not significant.

Conclusions and Implications

Findings suggest that marijuana legalization may be associated with a modest increase in recurrent CPS involvement over longer follow-up periods. CPS outcomes appear to reflect differences in case characteristics and broader socioeconomic contexts rather than legalization policies. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between policy adoption and institutional processes in child welfare systems and caution against attributing changes in CPS outcomes to legalization alone. This study highlights system-level mechanisms in child welfare and underscores the need for further research on how policy contexts shape CPS processes.