When Place Shapes Fear: Neighborhood Perceptions and Expected Police Victimization

Background/Purpose: Prior research has examined police contact—including violence, neglect, order-maintenance tactics (e.g., managing loitering, homelessness, or minor disputes), and broader racial discrimination—in relation to neighborhood change, most commonly gentrification. Despite the significance of this research, limited scholarship has examined fear of police, or expected victimization by police, as neighborhoods undergo that change. To address this gap, the current study examined how residents’ perceptions of neighborhood disruption and gentrification are associated with their perceived likelihood of future victimization by police.

Methods: Data from the Survey of Public-Police Encounters II (SPPE II), a cross-sectional survey, was used to examine associations between expected victimization by police and neighborhood disruption/gentrification. In this study, 1,063 adults from Baltimore and New York City were included, with the sample being majority female (60.2%) and predominantly between the ages of 25 and 44 (46.47%). The sample was racially diverse, with Black/African American respondents comprising the largest racial group (39.42%), followed by White (33.77%), Hispanic/Latino (17.69%), and other respondents (9.13%). Age was categorized into four groups (18-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65+) to capture life-stage differences that may shape experiences with and perceptions of police across the adult lifespan.

Expected victimization by police was measured using the 8-item Expectation of Police Practices Scale (EPPS; scores 0-24). Neighborhood perceptions were measured using the Neighborhood Change and Gentrification Scale (NCGS), structured into two factors: Neighborhood Disruption (scores 0-30) and Neighborhood Gentrification (scores 0-20). Multiple regression analyses tested associations between neighborhood perceptions and expected police victimization, adjusting for participant sex, race, and age.

Results: Higher perceived neighborhood disruption was associated with increased expectations of future police victimization (b=0.37, p<.001) among all participants, while higher perceived gentrification was associated with decreased expectations of future police victimization (b=-0.17, p=.004). Compared to female participants and white participants, male participants and Black participants both reported higher expected victimization by police (b=0.80, p = .03; b=-4.53, p<.001). Additionally, adults ages 25-44 reported higher expected victimization by police compared to adults ages 45-64 and 65+ (b=-1.67, p<.001; b=-2.38, p<.001).

Conclusion/Implications: This is the first study to examine how neighborhood change affects expected victimization by police. Findings suggest that the physical and social conditions of one's neighborhood meaningfully influence how much people anticipate being victimized by police. Even after controlling for sociodemographic factors, demographic disparities persist across race, gender, and age. Social workers, clinicians, and other mental health and medical professionals should consider how displacement and neighborhood change affect individuals’ well-being, including heightened anticipation of police victimization and its effects on mental and physical health. At the same time, social work must also critically examine its role as an instrument of surveillance and control, particularly for people in marginalized communities who have experienced neighborhood change. In neighborhoods experiencing displacement or gentrification, practitioners, policymakers, and institutions must urgently shift to anti-carceral, community-centered alternatives that address structural violence shaping strained police-community relationships.