Methods: We analyzed a population-based sample of 31,748 CWS referrals in Pennsylvania between 2015 and 2019 involving children with confirmed CWS cases and their Medicaid-insured mothers diagnosed with OUD within 180 days prior to or 90 days following the referral.
MOUD timing was categorized into four groups: (1) no MOUD, (2) before-referral only, (3) new initiation post-referral, and (4) ongoing. Child outcomes assessed 91 to 365 days post-referral included injuries, CWS re-reports, and total days in foster care. To address selection bias, we employed inverse probability weighting regression adjustment (IPWRA), using a multinomial logit model to estimate weights based on maternal history, demographics, and CWS case characteristics. We estimated the average treatment effect (ATE) for each MOUD timing relative to the non-MOUD group, reporting absolute differences for binary outcomes and mean differences for days in foster care.
Results: Mothers were distributed across MOUD groups: None (35.4%), before-only (18.4%), new (12.9%), and ongoing (33.2%). Compared to the non-MOUD group, the new MOUD was associated with a 3.2 percentage-point (PP) increase in the predicted probability of injury claims (95% CI: 2.1, 4.4). Ongoing MOUD was associated with a 4.1 PP increase in the probability of a new confirmed CWS case (95% CI: 2.6, 5.6). Despite the increase in re-reports, Ongoing MOUD was associated with a significant reduction in the mean number of days spent in out-of-home placement (ATE = -3.0 days; 95% CI: -4.3, -1.7).
Conclusions and Implications: This study demonstrates a nuanced relationship between MOUD timing and child outcomes, providing critical insights for the implementation of Title IV-E prevention strategies. The finding that ongoing MOUD significantly reduces the duration of out-of-home placement suggests that sustained maternal recovery may facilitate more efficient reunification and stabilize families, even when system contact remains frequent.
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