Energy Booms, Health Shocks, and Disability Claims: The Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing on SSI

Background and Purpose
Large, place-based energy booms—particularly the rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) beginning in the early 2000s—have reshaped local labor markets across the United States. Prior research documents substantial gains in employment and earnings in fracking regions, alongside rising concerns about environmental exposure, occupational hazards, and community health impacts. Despite these countervailing forces, little evidence exists on how fracking influences participation in federal disability programs, which sit at the intersection of labor market conditions and population health. This study examines how the onset of fracking affects applications and allowance outcomes for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), two major components of the U.S. social safety net. The goal is to identify the net effect of fracking-driven economic and health shocks on disability claiming behavior and to inform ongoing policy debates regarding energy development, workforce attachment, and long-term public expenditures.

Methods
The analysis uses confidential administrative records from the Social Security Administration, including the universe of SSI and SSDI applications from 1989 to 2016. These data provide ZIP-code–level measures of application counts, initial determinations, final allowance outcomes, and applicant characteristics such as age, education, and impairment category. Exposure to fracking is defined using the timing of first commercial drilling across nine major shale plays, with onset dates ranging from 2001 to 2008. The empirical strategy exploits plausibly exogenous spatial and temporal variation in fracking initiation across regions, comparing outcomes in more- and less-exposed ZIP codes before and after fracking begins. Models include ZIP-code fixed effects and year fixed effects to account for time-invariant local characteristics and common macroeconomic shocks. This design supports causal interpretation because shale geology and technological diffusion are predetermined with respect to local disability claiming trends.

Results
Preliminary estimates indicate that fracking onset is associated with systematic shifts in disability application behavior. In regions experiencing strong labor demand growth, SSI and SSDI applications exhibit declines consistent with improved employment opportunities for marginal workers. Evidence also suggests offsetting increases in applications over time in areas characterized by higher levels of environmental and occupational exposure. Patterns differ by program type, with SSDI responding more strongly to labor market channels and SSI showing greater sensitivity to health-related shocks and changes in local economic vulnerability. Allowance rates also exhibit heterogeneity, suggesting potential shifts in applicant severity or selection into application. Final results, including effect magnitudes and subgroup analyses, will be presented.

Conclusions and Implications
Fracking influences disability program participation through competing economic and health mechanisms, demonstrating that large place-based energy shocks have meaningful consequences for long-term social insurance programs. These findings carry implications for energy policy, labor market interventions, and fiscal planning. If energy booms reduce disability claiming through enhanced employment opportunities, they may yield complementary labor market and budgetary benefits. Conversely, if health impacts offset these gains over time, the full costs of energy development should incorporate increased demand for disability support. More broadly, this study underscores the importance of integrating labor, health, and environmental considerations when evaluating the consequences of major economic shocks.