Methods. This study utilized data from the 2017 cohort of the National Youth in Transition Database (NYTD), as well as data from the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) for year 2017. The final sample (N=6,254) consisted of all young people who completed the three NYTD surveys at ages 17, 19 and 21, and whose AFCARS and NYTD data could be merged using a unique identifier. First, we examined the rates of disconnection at ages 19 and 21, as well as differences by demographic factors and child welfare histories. Next, we conducted binary logistic regression analyses to explore the link between disconnection from school and employment at age 19 and young people’s outcomes at age 21, including giving birth/fathering a child, homelessness, substance misuse referrals, incarceration, and continued disconnection.
Results. Disconnection from school and employment was reported by 23% of youth at age 19, and 30% at age 21. Females had slightly lower rates of disconnection compared to males, and American Indian/Alaska Native youth had higher rates of disconnection than other racial/ethnic groups. In terms of child welfare experiences, congregate care placement, runaway status, and increased placement instability recorded at age 17 were linked to higher rates of disconnection at ages 19 and 21. Findings from binary logistic regression analyses revealed that controlling for youths’ demographics, child welfare histories, and outcomes at earlier ages, disconnection from school and employment at age 19 was linked to higher risk of giving birth/fathering a child (OR=1.45, p<.001), homelessness (OR=1.46, p<.001), substance misuse referrals (OR=1.33, p=.008), and incarceration (OR=1.45, p<.001) at age 21. Importantly, youth who reported disconnection at age 19 had higher risk of continued disconnection at age 21 (OR=2.34, p<.001).
Conclusions and Implications. Findings suggest that disconnection from school and employment is relatively common among youth “aging-out” of foster care, and may be linked to earlier child welfare experiences. Additionally, disconnection in early adulthood may heighten the risk for other adverse outcomes, such as homelessness, substance misuse, and incarceration. Targeted efforts to assess disconnection risk and provide educational financial assistance, vocational training, and other supportive services can reduce the risk of disconnection and improve young adult outcomes.
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