Housing Policy As Child Protection: The Effects of State-Level Hud Program Expansion on Child Maltreatment Report Rates

Background/Purpose

Housing assistance programs administered by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) aim to reduce housing cost burden and promote residential stability among low-income families. While prior research shows that anti-poverty policies can reduce child maltreatment, evidence on housing-specific interventions remains limited. To address this gap, we examined associations between state-level HUD policies and county-level child maltreatment report (CMR) rates using county-level panel data. First, we assessed whether higher HUD participation rates among eligible populations were associated with lower CMR rates. Second, we examined whether shifts toward broader program coverage—captured by increases in the share of participants with incomes above 50% of area median income (AMI)—were associated with reduced CMR rates. Third, we investigated whether greater HUD unit availability per eligible population was associated with reduced CMR rates. Finally, we examined whether greater utilization of available HUD housing resources, measured by the occupancy rate of HUD-assisted units, was associated with reduced CMR rates.

Methods

We constructed a county-year panel for all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from 2014 to 2023 (N =10,450). We used linear mixed-effects models to estimate the effects of within-state longitudinal changes (i.e., within-effects) in HUD policies on changes in county-level CMR rates, while controlling for between-state differences in long-term average HUD policies, year fixed effects, rurality, and county-level socioeconomic and demographic conditions, along with county- and state-level random intercepts. All HUD policy measures were entered simultaneously in a single model with controls, allowing estimation of their net associations. All estimates were weighted by county child populations.

Results

State-level HUD program expansions were generally associated with reductions in CMR rates. A one percentage point increase in the share of participants with incomes above 50% AMI was associated with a 1.87 per 1,000 decrease in CMR rates (β = −1.87, p < .001), suggesting that broader program coverage beyond the lowest-income households may help reduce maltreatment reporting. A one percentage point increase in HUD unit availability per eligible population was also associated with a 3.51 per 1,000 decrease in CMR rates (β = −3.51, p < .001). Greater utilization of available HUD-assisted housing units was associated with a 0.15 per 1,000 decrease in CMR rates (β = −0.15, p = .005). One exception was HUD participation rates. Unexpectedly, a one percentage point increase in HUD participation rates was associated with a 2.56 per 1,000 increase in CMR rates (β = 2.56, p < .001).

Conclusions/Implications

Our findings suggest that state-level HUD program expansions—particularly increased housing availability and broader program coverage—are associated with lower CMR rates. The positive association between HUD participation rates and CMR rates may reflect underlying housing need rather than program effects, as higher participation may proxy for unobserved economic vulnerability. These results highlight the potential role of expanding housing coverage, supply, and access as strategies for child maltreatment prevention.