Toward Decent Work In Child Welfare: Multilevel Predictors of Early Career Turnover

Background: Early career child welfare workers occupy a critical yet vulnerable position within the workforce. The early career period is marked by rapid skill acquisition, role adjustment, and exposure to the highly demanding realities of child welfare practice. Despite being foundational to the effectiveness of the child welfare system, early career workers experience high rates of departure within the first 12-24 months. This pattern poses significant challenges to workforce stability and undermines the continuity and quality of services provided to children and families. Prior research suggests that workers’ decisions to stay or leave the field are shaped by a range of workplace and organizational factors, including job satisfaction, work environment, agency leadership, mentorship, coworker support, and organizational climate and culture. However, existing literature primarily relies on proxy measures (e.g., intention to leave) rather than actual turnover during this critical employment period. Guided by the Job-demands and resources model, this study examined the impact of multilevel factors on both early-career workers' turnover and intention to leave.

Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted from a longitudinal statewide workforce study in a southeastern state. Analyses were conducted using data from three time points (i.e., baseline, 6 months post-hire, and 12 months post-hire) to examine the relationships between multilevel factors and workforce employment decisions. Multilevel factors considered for this study included demographic characteristics (i.e., age, gender, race, and ethnicity), organizational influences (i.e., physical work environment, role characteristics, administrative leadership, career mentorship, and peer support), and work responses (i.e., job satisfaction). Employment decisions included both intention to leave and turnover. The sample consisted of early-career child welfare workers (N=915). The study used three logistic regression models to examine the impacts of multilevel factors on intentions and turnover.

Results: The intention-to-leave model indicated that job satisfaction was associated with lower odds of considering departure (OR=.96). Similarly, positive role characteristics were associated with lower odds of leaving (OR=.97). Unexpectedly, higher perceived coworker support was associated with increased odds of seriously considering leaving (OR=1.02). Regarding turnover, women and transgender workers (OR=.65) had lower odds of agency departure compared to men. Higher job satisfaction (OR=.98) was associated with lower odds of turnover in the subsequent six months. Counterintuitively, a positive perception of the physical work environment (OR=1.03) was also associated with an increased likelihood of departure in the subsequent six months. A post-hoc analysis revealed that when intention was added to the turnover model, job satisfaction no longer had a significant relationship with turnover.

Conclusion: Findings partially support the Job Demands-Resources model, with job satisfaction and positive role characteristics emerging as early career resources. However, post-hoc analyses indicated that job satisfaction was no longer significant when intention to leave was included, suggesting its effects on turnover may operate indirectly through intentions. Unexpected findings regarding the work environment and coworker support suggest that resources may function differently during early organizational socialization. Practical implications include focusing retention efforts on early identification of intentions, strengthening role characteristics (i.e., clarity, harmony, and balance), and improving onboarding experiences need to be considered.