Heterogeneous Trajectories of Positive Identity from Early to Middle Adolescence Among Violence-Exposed Youth In an Urban High-Risk Cohort: A Latent Class Growth Analysis

Background: Grounded in the Positive Youth Development framework, positive identity—encompassing purpose, self-worth, and future optimism—is a foundational developmental asset that buffers youth against adversity and predicts long-term psychosocial well-being. Yet youth in high-risk urban environments face cumulative adversities that may undermine this asset across the transition to adolescence. While heterogeneous trajectories are well-documented for problem behaviors such as internalizing and externalizing symptoms, subgroup variability in positive developmental assets remains critically understudied, limiting the field's ability to identify which youth demonstrate resilience. This study identified heterogeneous trajectory classes of positive identity from early to middle adolescence. Further, we examined whether lifetime polyvictimization differentiated class membership in an urban, high-risk cohort.

Methods: Data were from a prospective longitudinal cohort of 304 urban, low-income mother–youth dyads (53% boys) recruited at birth for a study on prenatal cocaine exposure. Positive identity was assessed at ages 12, 15, and 17 using the Positive Identity subscale of the Developmental Assets Profile. Lifetime violence exposure was youth-reported at age 17 using the Juvenile Victimization Questionnaire, a 33-item polyvictimization measure. Latent class growth analysis was conducted in Mplus v.8.8 using maximum likelihood with robust standard errors and full information maximum likelihood estimation (covariance coverage ≥ .85). Two- to four-class models were evaluated using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), the Lo-Mendell-Rubin likelihood ratio test (LMR-LRT), the bootstrapped likelihood ratio test (BLRT), entropy, interpretability, and minimum class size. The Bolck-Croon-Hagenaars (BCH) method examined class differences in polyvictimization and sociodemographic covariates (youth sex, race, prenatal cocaine exposure, maternal age and education) while correcting for classification uncertainty—a particular strength given modest entropy.

Results: A 3-class solution provided optimal fit (BIC=5216.07; LMR-LRT p=.035; BLRT p<.001; entropy=.68), with class-specific average posterior probabilities of .84–.87 indicating adequate within-class assignment precision. The Moderate-Declining class (54%; intercept=18.88, slope=−0.36, p=.023) showed moderate initial positive identity declining gradually through age 17. The High-Stable class (40%; intercept=22.37, slope=+0.30, p=.090) reflected persistently elevated positive identity. The Low-Rapidly Declining class (6%; intercept=15.58, slope=−1.38, p<.001)—the most vulnerable subgroup—exhibited the lowest baseline and steepest decline (>1 SD drop across five years). The Moderate-Declining class reported significantly higher polyvictimization breadth (M=0.72, SE=0.09) than the High-Stable class (M=0.45, SE=0.06; p=.025). Girls were substantially overrepresented in the Low-Rapidly Declining class (92% vs. ~53%; χ²[2]=10.60, p=.005). Black youth were overrepresented in the High-Stable class versus the Moderate-Declining class (χ²[2]=11.77, p=.003). Other covariates were nonsignificant (ps>.38).

Conclusions and Implications: This study provides novel evidence of heterogeneity in positive identity development among high-risk urban youth, with the majority following a declining trajectory through mid-adolescence. Cumulative breadth of violence exposure—beyond any single victimization type—may compromise positive identity during a critical window for self-concept formation. The concentration of girls in the most rapidly declining class underscores the need for sex-responsive screening in early adolescence, while the resilience pattern among Black youth points to ethnic-racial socialization as a culturally affirming asset-building target. Trauma-informed interventions integrating community violence reduction, sex-responsive programming, and culturally affirming asset-building are warranted to promote positive identity development among violence-exposed youth.