Exposure to Maltreatment, Child Behavioral Problems, and Placement Instability: A Path Analysis Approach

Background: Placement instability remains a critical challenge in the U.S. foster care system, closely linked to maltreatment and adverse behavioral outcomes among children. Studies show that a substantial proportion of foster youth experience multiple placement disruptions, underscoring systemic challenges in ensuring stable caregiving environments (Casey Family Programs, 2023; Maguire et al., 2024). Exposure to maltreatment and its subsequent impact on child well-being has emerged as a correlate of placement disruption (McGuire, 2018). These traumatic experiences intensify emotional dysregulation and behavioral difficulties, elevating the risk of subsequent instability. Although prior studies document associations among maltreatment, behavioral problems, and placement instability, the pathways through which foster care maltreatment contributes to instability via child behavior remain insufficiently understood in large, nationally representative samples.

Methods: This study conducted a secondary analysis of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being III (NSCAW III), a nationally representative longitudinal study of children involved in the U.S. child welfare system. From this dataset, 196 participants with complete data on all study variables were selected. Key measures included foster care maltreatment, behavioral functioning, and placement instability. Generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) was employed to estimate direct and indirect pathways from foster care maltreatment through behavioral problems to placement instability. All analyses were conducted using Stata/SE 18

Results: The generalized structural equation model demonstrated adequate convergence with a final log likelihood of −647.11 (N = 196). There was no significant direct effect of type of maltreatment on placement instability after controlling for demographic and case-level covariates (Neglect β = −0.38, p = .61; Abuse β = −0.21, p = .66). Similarly, behavioral functioning did not have a significant direct effect on placement instability (Borderline β = 0.67, p = .27; Clinical β = 0.73, p = .15). However, a significant direct effect emerged for neglect and behavioral functioning. Children who experienced neglect were significantly more likely to exhibit clinical-level externalizing behaviors (β = 0.60, p = .019), suggesting that neglect heightened behavioral risk. Older children (6–10 years: β = 0.97, p = .023; 11+ years: β = 0.81, p = .049) and those with developmental disabilities (β = 2.32, p < .001) showed higher odds of behavioral difficulties. Despite these associations, behavioral functioning did not significantly predict placement instability, indicating that the indirect pathway from foster-home maltreatment to placement instability through child behavior was not statistically supported.

Conclusions: Findings indicate that maltreatment exposure, particularly neglect, is significantly associated with increased behavioral problems, but behaviors do not mediate the maltreatment-placement instability relationship. This suggests that behavioral difficulties alone do not drive placement instability; structural and relational factors within foster home environments may play decisive role. Future research should examine other factors, such as caregiver quality, system-level support, and trauma exposure, to better understand and prevent foster care placement disruptions.