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Session Proposal: Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations (AGU25)

GC036
Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations

Session ID#: 247258

Session Description:
Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. The climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. We welcome contributions that take stock of the ability of models to capture recent trends across all Earth system components. Contributions highlighting successes and discrepancies, robust procedures for confronting observed and modeled trends, moving beyond quantification into understanding the origins of historical trends in the observational record and/or models, and cutting-edge methods (e.g. Machine Learning, kilometer scale models, hindcasts) for identifying sources of discrepancies and separating forced signals from internal variability are all welcome.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener:  Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States
Conveners:  Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Robert Wills, ETH Zurich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Zurich, Switzerland and Stephen Po-Chedley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States
 
Attributing Trends of Lower Tropospheric Inversion Strength (1868296)
Senne Van Loon, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
 
Testing Modern Trends Against the Paleoclimate Records: Signal and Noise in the Landfall Seasonality of East Asian Tropical Cyclones (1870819)
Gan Zhang, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, Dan Fu, Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, United States, Thomas R Knutson, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Jorg Franke, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland and Wan-Ling Tseng, National Taiwan University, International Degree Program in Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Taipei, Taiwan
 
The Exceptional Rise of Global Tropospheric Temperature over 2022-2024 (1875302)
Stephen Po-Chedley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States, Mark Zelinka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Chad William Thackeray, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
 
Detecting the Forced Recovery of Antarctic Ozone Amid Internal Variability Using Coupled Chemistry-Climate Ensembles (1884238)
Peidong Wang, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States; Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, Susan Solomon, MIT/EAPS, Cambridge, MA, United States, Benjamin D Santer, LLNL, Livermore, United States, Douglas Edward Kinnison, NCAR, Boulder, United States, Qiang Fu, University of Washington, Seattle, United States, Kane Stone, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, Jun Zhang, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Gloria L Manney, NorthWest Research Associates, Inc, Socorro, NM, United States and Luis Millan, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Climate models exaggerate the impact of greenhouse gases on recent interhemispheric sea surface temperature contrast and tropical climate (1884776)
Chengfei He1, Amy C Clement2, Mark A Cane3, Alex Omar Gonzalez4, Young-Oh Kwon4, Jia-Rui Shi5, Jeremy Michael Klavans6 and Lisa Murphy Goes7, (1)Northeastern University, Marine & Environmental Sciences, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, (5)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (6)University of Miami, Miami, United States, (7)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States
 
Tropical Pacific Trends: Model Biases, Mechanisms, and Impacts on Tropical Cyclones (Invited) (1886728)
Adam H Sobel1, Suzana Camargo2, Mark A Cane3, Amy C Clement4, Boniface Fosu5, Megan Hart6, Patrick Kelly6, Chia-Ying Lee7, Ratnaksha Lele8, Jonathan Lin9, Kevin Reed10, Richard Seager11, Gabriel Andres Vecchi12, Yi Xia13 and Jingyi Zhuo14, (1)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (2)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States, (5)Mississippi State University, Geosciences, Mississippi State, United States, (6)Aon, Troy, United States, (7)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (8)Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (9)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (10)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, United States, (11)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (12)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, (13)Columbia University, New York, United States, (14)Princeton University, Princeton, United States
 
Confronting atmospheric circulation trends in AI models with physics-based models and observations (1890761)
Tiffany Shaw1, Ian Baxter1, Katharine Rucker1 and Pedram Hassanzadeh2, (1)The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, (2)The University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States
 
Distinct Internal Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Drive Similar Uncertainty in the Hadley Circulation Trend (1891601)
Mahdi Hasan, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Raleigh, NC, United States and Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, United States
 
Benchmarking Thermodynamic Trends and Extremes in AI Climate Emulator 2 and NeuralGCM Hybrid AI model (1898673)
Katharine Rucker1, Ian Baxter2, Pedram Hassanzadeh3, Tiffany Shaw2 and Hamid Alizadeh Pahlavan4, (1)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (2)The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, (3)The University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States, (4)NorthWest Research Associates Boulder, Boulder, United States
 
Discrepancies in near-term projections of climate impacts due to persistent issues in simulated SST trends in GCMs (1899131)
Kevin Schwarzwald1,2, Noel Siegert3,4, Nathan J L Lenssen5,6, Radley M Horton1,2 and Patrick M Alexander7, (1)Columbia University, Climate School, New York, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, New York, United States, (4)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Ocean and Climate Physics, Palisades, United States, (5)Colorado School of Mines, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Golden, CO, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States, (7)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Investigating the causes of the contemporary equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient trend switch in CMIP6 subset (1911825)
Hannah Byrne1, Jason E Smerdon2 and Richard Seager2, (1)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers (1918185)
Qinghua Ding, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Zhe Li, University of California, Santa Barbara, Geography and Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, United States
 
Effects of Climate Change on Warming Trends in Coastal Regions Adjacent to Western Boundary Currents (1918577)
Raquel Pauly, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, United States and Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States
 
How do future data gap scenarios affect assessment of models’ Global and Hemispheric Energy Imbalance Trends? (1920905)
Mark Richardson, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Maria Zita Hakuba, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Pasadena, United States
 
Deus ex machina long-term cooling of the eastern Pacific cold tongue in ocean reanalysis data (1920957)
Feng Jiang, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States and Mark A Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Trend of tropical clear-sky spectral OLR and challenges to get the tropical upper troposphere right: confronting models and reanalysis with spectral and broadband observations (1921189)
Xianglei Huang, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Xiuhong Chen, University of Michigan, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, Norman G Loeb, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States, Seiji Kato, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, United States, Suhui Zhao, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Chongxing Fan, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, David Paynter, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Wuyin Lin, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States and Hailong Wang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
 
Assessing the Variability of Earth's Energy Imbalance in the Early 21st Century with Two High-Resolution Coupled Models (1930502)
Yan-Ting Chen1, Timothy Merlis1, Tra Dinh1, Stephen Griffies1, John P Krasting2, Raphael Dussin3 and Stephan Fueglistaler1, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
 
Regional impacts of the tropical Pacific SST trend discrepancy through atmospheric circulation (1945443)
Joonsuk Kang, The University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States, Mr. Rhidian Thomas, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, Nick J Dunstone, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, Sarah M Kang, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Tim Woollings, University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom and Yue Yu, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanographic Administration of China, Hangzhou, China
 
A Land-Sea Warming Contrast Signal in Observed Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Circulation, and Precipitation Trends (1951185)
Benjamin Oscar Johnson, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
 
Aerosol Emissions Dominate Observed and Modeled Hydrological Trends in Arid and Semiarid Regions (1955537)
Yanda Zhang, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Bjorn Hallvard Samset, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway, L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, Laura Wilcox, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom and Daniel Westervelt, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming (Invited) (1959689)
Russell Blackport1, Michael Sigmond1 and James Screen2, (1)Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
Human Influence on Recent Trends in Extratropical Low-Level Wind Speed (1961157)
Hsing-Hung Chou, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States and Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
 
Drivers of historical Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature trends (1962047)
David B Bonan1, David Battisti1, Wei Cheng2 and Kyle Armour3, (1)University of Washington, Seattle, United States, (2)Univ of Washington, Seattle, United States, (3)University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric and Climate Science and School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
The potential for emergent constraints on hydroclimate projections over the Southwestern U.S. (1964233)
Flavio Lehner1, Ankur Dixit2, Hanjun Kim1 and Yan-Ning Kuo3, (1)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (2)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, (3)Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
 
Distinct land relative humidity trends in observations, reanalyses, and models explained by a theoretical wetness index (1964299)
Wenyu Zhou1, Ruby Leung2, Bryce E Harrop3, Ziming Chen1 and Chuan-Chieh Chang1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Richland, WA, United States
 
Leveraging ForceSMIP and the Observational Large Ensemble to evaluate forced and internal components of multi-decadal trends in Earth System Models (1976674)
Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States, Robert Jnglin Wills, ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland, Pedro DiNezio, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States and Karen A McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Institute of Environment and Sustainability; Department of Statistics and Data Science; Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science, Los Angeles, United States
 
Observed and modeled amplification of the frequency, duration, and extreme heat impacts of the Pacific trough regime (1976867)
Jhayron Steven Pérez Carrasquilla1, Maria J Molina1, Dr. Kirsten J Mayer, PhD2, Katherine Dagon3, John Fasullo4 and Isla Simpson5, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI, United States, (3)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States
 
Exploring the Impact of Winds on Southern Ocean Temperature Trends in CESM2 Large Ensemble (1976937)
Nicolas Davis, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, United States, Matt Luongo, University of Washington, CICOES, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States and Zac Espinosa, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States
 
Record Warmth and Surge of Global Mean Temperature in 2023 and 2024 - Rarely Simulated in GCMs, Yet Highly Predictable in an Initialized Model, and Caused by ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies (1977179)
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, Roberto Bilbao, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Barcelona, Spain, Aaron Donohoe, Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, Seattle, United States and Stefano Materia, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
 
The Signal-to-Noise Problem in the Simulation of Decadal Climate Modes (1985036)
Jeremy Michael Klavans, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Amy C Clement, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States, Mark A Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States, Chengfei He, Northeastern University, Department of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Boston, United States, Lisa Murphy Goes, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States and Pedro DiNezio, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Radar-derived Trends in Extreme Tropical Precipitation (1986733)
Eric Mischell, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States and Brian Soden, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, United States
 
Tropical mean-state biases mask Southern Ocean contributions to tropical SST trends (1989411)
Yue Dong, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, Kezhou Lu, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, Yen-Ting Hwang, National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan and Lettie Roach, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Bremerhaven, Germany
 
Using wind nudging simulations to quantify the circulation contribution to observed regional humidity and temperature trends (1995058)
Ian Baxter, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Arianna Marie Varuolo-Clarke, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States
 
Decadal Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Detected in Cloud Motion Vectors (1995701)
Larry Di Girolamo1, Guangyu Zhao2, Gan Zhang3, Zhuo Wang3, Arka Mitra1 and Jesse Loveridge3, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
 
Surface Water Balance in the Colombian Orinoco Basin Based on ERA5 Reanalysis and Observations (1999949)
Astrid Baquero-Bernal, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
 
Investigating India's Anomalous Relative Humidity Trend in Observations and Global Climate Models (2002932)
Clara Larson1, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello1 and William R Boos2, (1)University of California Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, Berkeley, United States, (2)University of California Berkeley, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States
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