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Session Proposal: Global Surface Warming Patterns: Mechanisms, Impacts and Projections (AGU25)

GC060
Global Surface Warming Patterns: Mechanisms, Impacts and Projections

Session ID#: 247443

Session Description:
Global surface temperature changes exhibit considerable spatial variations. Non-uniform surface warming patterns evolve across a range of timescales under both external forcings and internal variability, driven by local and remote physical processes. Over recent decades, the observed surface warming pattern features unprecedented cooling trends in the tropical eastern Pacific and the Southern Ocean, which fall largely outside of the range of climate model simulations. The discrepancies in recent tropical warming patterns have broad implications for regional and global climate signals (such as precipitation, circulation, and climate sensitivity), yet their formations remain unclear, posing great challenges for constraining their future evolution and associated climate impacts. This session invites observational, modeling, and paleoclimate studies on the mechanisms, impacts and projections of global surface warming patterns. Topics include but are not limited to forced changes in the coupled system, low-frequency internal variability, tropical inter-basin interactions, tropical-extratropical teleconnections, and pattern effects.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1635 Oceans [GLOBAL CHANGE]
Primary Convener:  Yue Dong, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Conveners:  Malte F Stuecker, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States and Sarah M Kang, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Germany
 
Mean-State Biases Affect the Forced Response of the Tropical Pacific (Invited) (1845717)
Jingyi Zhuo, Princetion University, Princeton, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, Suzana J. Camargo, Columbia University, Climate School, New York City, United States, Dr. Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Yen-Heng Lin, Mississippi State University Science and Technology Center, Northern Gulf Institute, Kiln, United States, Boniface Fosu, Mississippi State University, Geosciences, Mississippi State, United States and Kevin Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, United States
 
ColdBlobMIP: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Atmospheric Response to the North Atlantic Warming Hole (1855226)
Kristopher B Karnauskas1, Sydney Kramer2, Maxwell Elling3, Lei Zhang4, Dillon J Amaya5, Heng Liu6, Yanying Chen6, Larissa Nazarenko7, Wenchang Yang8, Gabriel Andres Vecchi9, Dervla Meegan Kumar10 and Jane Wilson Baldwin11, (1)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (2)University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (4)Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (5)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (6)CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijng, China, (7)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (8)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (9)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, (10)University of California, Irvine, Irvine, United States, (11)University of California, Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States
 
Responses of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes (1887716)
Hien Bui, National Central University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taoyuan, Taiwan, Yi-Xian Li, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, Wenyu Zhou, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States and Peter van Rensch, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
 
A Gap-Filled Global MODIS Daytime and Nighttime Sea Surface Temperature Dataset (1891227)
Xiaolu Jiang1, Min Zhao2 and Bo Huang2, (1)The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China, (2)The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
 
Delayed Emergence of El Niño-like Warming Under Improved Tropical Mean State (1891656)
Alessandra Stoppelli1, Christian Éthé1, Juliette Mignot2 and Jérome Vialard2, (1)LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS-IRD-MNHN-Sorbonne University, Paris, France, (2)LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS-IRD-MNHN-Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
 
Linking Antarctic sea ice expansion to high-latitude Southern Ocean surface cooling (1904993)
Wei Liu, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
 
Subtropical Pacific Cooling Driven by Land Precipitation Response to CO2 Forcing (1918958)
Kezhou Lu1, Yue Dong2,3, Gang Chen1, Stephan Fueglistaler4 and Clara Deser5, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (4)Princeton University, Princeton, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Orographic Control of Pacific Mean State and Warming Pattern Biases in CESM1 (1926776)
Xi Chen and Jung-Eun Lee, Brown University, Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Providence, RI, United States
 
Understanding Improved Simulation of Recent Climate Trends in High-Resolution CESM (Invited) (1930331)
Ping Chang1, Qiuying Zhang1, Xue LIU1, Travis Prochko1, Gaopeng Xu1, Frederic S Castruccio2, Gokhan Danabasoglu3, Stephen G Yeager2, Yue Dong4, Prof. Lorenzo M Polvani, PhD5 and Pedro DiNezio6, (1)Texas A&M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (5)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (6)University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Continued increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide exacerbated the 2022-2024 global temperature spike (1939374)
Xuanming Su1, Hideo Shiogama2, Kaoru Tachiiri3, Dr. Katsumasa Tanaka, PhD4, Akinori Ito5, Tomohiro Hajima6, Roland Séférian7, Michio Kawamiya5 and Manabu Abe5, (1)JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan, (2)National Institute for Environmental Studies, Earth System Division, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth, Yokohama, Japan, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (5)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (6)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Yokohama, Japan, (7)Meteo-France - CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Toulouse, France
 
Contrasting Tropical SST Warming in Two Climate Models: The Roles of Winds, Clouds, Evaporative Cooling, and Ocean Dynamics (1943646)
Minmin Jason Fu, University of Southampton, School of Ocean and Earth Science, Southampton, United Kingdom and Alexey V Fedorov, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
 
High-Resolution Modeling Confirms a La Niña-like Forced Sea Level Response in CESM (1955477)
John Fasullo, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, R Steven Nerem, Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Christopher M Little, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, United States, Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, Sloan Coats, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, United States, Peter Gent, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Ashley Sarah Bellas-Manley, University of Colorado Boulder, Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Boulder, United States
 
Warm tropical SSTs warm more in both the past and projections (1960415)
Allison Hogikyan, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; University of Chicago, Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States and Malte Jansen, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States
 
Thermal Anomalies Rising: Future Projections of Heatwave Intensification in the Kashmir Himalayas under CMIP6 Scenarios (1961779)
Humaira Hamid, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States and Sandeep Samantaray, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Civil Engineering, Srinagar, India
 
Linking Recent Trends in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects to Sea Surface Warming Patterns (1963462)
Chieh-Ju Hsieh1,2, Tiffany Shaw2 and Yen-Ting Hwang1, (1)National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan, (2)The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States
 
Contribution of Individual Surface Forcings to Observed Southern Ocean Temperature and Salinity Trends (1963895)
Matt Luongo, University of Washington, CICOES & School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences & School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States and Gregory C Johnson, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
Warm Pool variability as a fingerprint of forced variability (1964915)
Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
 
Subpolar North Atlantic cooling reinforced by colder, drier atmosphere with a weakening AMOC (1972899)
Yifei Fan, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States, Duo Chan, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, Eugene Edmund Clothiaux, Penn State, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States, Pengfei Zhang, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, University Park, United States and Laifang Li, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
 
Contrasting Local and Deep Convective Control of Free Tropospheric Temperature in Reanalysis and Models (1976603)
Cameron McLeod and Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Tufts University, Medford, United States
 
The complex relation between global mean temperature and radiative fluxes due to internal variability (1981918)
Qinlan Yang, Princeton University, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States and Stephan Fueglistaler, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
 
Perturbing the Surface Energy Balance to Emulate the Historical Pattern of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends (1987391)
Timothy M Merlis, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Tropical impacts of the Southern Ocean underestimated due to the double-ITCZ problem (1990423)
Yue Dong, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
 
Constraining the efficiency of the South-East Pacific teleconnection with cloud feedbacks and ocean heat uptake efficiency (1992914)
Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Yiyu Zheng, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
 
Relationship between local feedback at sea surface and the spatial pattern of SST change (1998036)
Chen Zhou1, Yincheng Liu1, Jian Ma2, Xin Huang3 and Jian Lu4, (1)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China, (3)Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (4)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
 
Large-scale forced and unforced temperature variability set by meridional heat transport and time-varying radiative feedbacks (2002516)
Rebecca Cleveland Stout1, Cristian Proistosescu2 and Gerard Roe1, (1)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Climate, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
 
Assessing the relationship between transient tropical Pacific warming patterns, the pattern effect, and equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP6 abrupt 4xCO2 simulations (2002664)
Natalie Burls, George Mason University, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States and Scott Knapp, George Mason University, Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, United States
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